A few quick thoughts on NJ Senate race that constitutes a true toss-up. The closeness of this campaign is more a result of Menendez being a poor candidate and a worse campaigner than it is about Kean Jr. being a quality opponent. The Democrats choose to go with Menendez as a replacement for Jon Corzine when he took his Goldman Sachs millions to Trenton as Governor.
Menendez in many respects was the natural choice as the senior democrat in the NJ congressional delegation. The only real option to Menendez was Richard Codey, the man who replaced "Meet me at the Parkway Rest Stop" McGreevy when he resigned in disgrace. Codey is a long-time "old school" Essex county democrat without apparent significant warts. That said, he ain't sexy, he's white and his relationship with Corzine appears to be pretty distant if not somewhat hostile. While Menendez would have had a hissy fit, a case could have made that not giving up his position in the House minority leadership was in NJ's best interests. It also would have generated considerable noise within a significant segment of the NJ democratic party.
[Side Note: For those unfamiliar with NJ politics, NJ has a very significant latino population and latino voters in NJ have remained almost exclusively democratic. Moreover, Latino leaders have complained bitterly in recent years regarding the lack of latino appointments to the NJ Supreme Court and within the party generally. This issue is probably worthy of a post of its own, 'cause there's lots of material.]
The fact is, however, that Codey likely would have won against Kean Jr. in a walk. Kean Jr. is summarily unimpressive. He's young, his list of accomplishments as a state senator are unimpressive, he isn't charismatic, he looks squirelly, I don't think he's ever had a real job and he's got a painfully obvious speech impediment. On the the positive side he's the scion of the Kean family - the equivalent of NJ royalty. Moreover, he's run a very effective campaign in a difficult national environment for republicans.
Kean Jr. if you listen close distances himself from Bush as much as possible. If you don't listen real close all you'll hear are slams against Menendez. It's effective because Menendez ain't a paragon of personal or professional ethics. It is unlikely he's technically a crook, but he does know quite a few and his judgement leaves more than a bit to be desired.
A few quick thoughts, who I am trying to kid - I'm only halfway done, I'll add more tomorrow....
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