Webb Ahead - A FNC Lead Team Signs Off . . .

Webb takes the lead by 3,000 votes with approximately 98% counted. A certain recount situation, but a big practical difference between being the declared count winner versus a challenger (that is if it isn't the state of Washington). Flipping over to Matthews MSNBC - is he paying attention - Webb somehow surged, after correcting Todd, now the Senate is back in play. WHy has no one called TN - please someone give me analysis in the midst of this blah blah.

Hannity Calls MO and VA "Very Tight"

The Razor seems to indicate Allen in trouble as well as Talent. Claims Burns (MT), may just pull it out. Has Gingrich on now. Newtie's seconds the concern about Allen - to me that means Gorgeous George is dead. Optimism seems limited to that arch-conservative Lincoln (please call me my Dad's name John) Chafee.

The "Architect" Dismisses Exit Polls, Claims He's Not Looking at Them

Leading off the third hour Hannity has Karl Rove on. Rove, staying on message, dismisses exit polls in anticipation of dismissing voting soon. Rove's message is consistent with Mehlman early statements and semi-hysterical comments displayed of the RNC webpage. No smugness is recognizable in Rove's voice - genius status in jeopardy. Stay tuned.

More Indications Early Exit Polls WIll Favor Dems

Sean "The Razor" Hannity opened his show with a fifteen minute diatribe begging the faithful to ignore the evil early polling data that will "inevitably" come out after5 p.m. EST. Since it is no revelation where the Razor gets his marching orders (note the info contained in my previous post), and given the fervor of his rant, it seems quite likely that the early numbers will strongly favor the democrats. Somewhat surprisingly, the Razor spent an inordinate amount of time on a race many had already placed pretty safely in the Republican column - TN. Does that portend a late night in TN - at this point I suspect so.

RNC Chairman On Rush

Ken Mehlman was just on Rush Limbaugh at the top of the 2nd hour. Not much new here other than Mehlman warning republicans to ignore early exit poll results. Cited flaws in '04,'02 and '00. I thought the flaws in those prior years were primarily the result of early result dissemination of the data. That is the data had not yet been properly weighted.

Mehlman then stressed his comments were not based upon any information he had regarding the current election. Does he protest to much? My guess is that early info from IN and KY will break significantly for the dems and the republicans don't want that info to have the effect of reducing its turnout in the mountain west or the west coast.

This is almost sad . . .

if it wasn't so insidious. Reasonable people gave up the WMD issue long ago. David Kay, former UN weapon inspector who went to Iraq at the behest of the US gov't has made best efforts to put this issue to bed. He has stated for various Congressional committees and was interviewed extensively for Woodward's, State of Denial and Isikoff & Corn's, Hubris that Saddam's Iraq; (a) did not have chemical or biological weapons, (b)had no nuclear weapons program, (c) found no evidence to support the existence of mobile chemical/biological weapons labs, and (d) found it did not possess unmanned airborne drones to deliver any such non-existent weapons. These findings were arrived at despite his sincere belief that such weapons existed prior to the invasion of Iraq. Mr. Kay's testimony is not equivocal and his bona fides are beyond reproach. Yet the tinfoil hat crew ain't ready to give up the fight. What is far more disturbing than that is that the Administration has the audacity to try and revive this fantasy, despite the fact that the president has been explicit that no WMDs existed in Iraq at the time of the US invasion.

http://www.rawstory.com/news/2006/Blitzer_shuts_down_Hoekstras_Iraq_WMD_1106.html

New Jersey Special - Menendez V. Kean Jr.

A few quick thoughts on NJ Senate race that constitutes a true toss-up. The closeness of this campaign is more a result of Menendez being a poor candidate and a worse campaigner than it is about Kean Jr. being a quality opponent. The Democrats choose to go with Menendez as a replacement for Jon Corzine when he took his Goldman Sachs millions to Trenton as Governor.

Menendez in many respects was the natural choice as the senior democrat in the NJ congressional delegation. The only real option to Menendez was Richard Codey, the man who replaced "Meet me at the Parkway Rest Stop" McGreevy when he resigned in disgrace. Codey is a long-time "old school" Essex county democrat without apparent significant warts. That said, he ain't sexy, he's white and his relationship with Corzine appears to be pretty distant if not somewhat hostile. While Menendez would have had a hissy fit, a case could have made that not giving up his position in the House minority leadership was in NJ's best interests. It also would have generated considerable noise within a significant segment of the NJ democratic party.

[Side Note: For those unfamiliar with NJ politics, NJ has a very significant latino population and latino voters in NJ have remained almost exclusively democratic. Moreover, Latino leaders have complained bitterly in recent years regarding the lack of latino appointments to the NJ Supreme Court and within the party generally. This issue is probably worthy of a post of its own, 'cause there's lots of material.]

The fact is, however, that Codey likely would have won against Kean Jr. in a walk. Kean Jr. is summarily unimpressive. He's young, his list of accomplishments as a state senator are unimpressive, he isn't charismatic, he looks squirelly, I don't think he's ever had a real job and he's got a painfully obvious speech impediment. On the the positive side he's the scion of the Kean family - the equivalent of NJ royalty. Moreover, he's run a very effective campaign in a difficult national environment for republicans.

Kean Jr. if you listen close distances himself from Bush as much as possible. If you don't listen real close all you'll hear are slams against Menendez. It's effective because Menendez ain't a paragon of personal or professional ethics. It is unlikely he's technically a crook, but he does know quite a few and his judgement leaves more than a bit to be desired.

A few quick thoughts, who I am trying to kid - I'm only halfway done, I'll add more tomorrow....

Say It and Make It So or Shock and Befuddle

Karl Rove, Ken Mehlman and the RNC are understandably in full court press mode with regard to the upcoming midterm elections. Much of the press appears stunned when the Team rolled out a coordinated effort, spearheaded by the President, two weeks ago claiming that not only would the Republicans retain the Senate, but the House as well. Flummoxed press members respond by saying that the polls seem to indicate otherwise. The Rove machine undeterred, pushes forward, smirking knowingly as if they know something the rest of us do not.

The responses of the press and the Democrats are interesting. I believe I've detected a pattern of sorts. First, visceral response is smug bemusement - what are these guys smokin'? Next, facts are cited (read, poll data) that suggest differently. That reaction is countered by what appear to be RNC talking points; claims of more detailed polling data and mention of the abundant cash that's going to be spent before the campaign is through. That is followed by a fear concussion grenade of quick mentions of increased taxes, S.F. Nancy and terrorism.

The reaction of the press/Democrat at that point is stunned self-doubt, is that SOB going to do it again. You can almost hear them muttering at the end of the discussion. PSYCH!! You can be sure that there's a ton of towel snapping and giddy spider barkin' goin' on in the White House locker room watching the reaction to this posturing.

Let's look at this intelligently. Rove and the RNC do have more detailed polling data including internal polls that aren't readily available to the public, so do the Democrats. That said, the fact is the races that are in play are being polled to death right now by multiple organizations. Those polls taken collectively along with the trend data tell a story. The numbers are the numbers. That is not to say the the House is a fait acompli. Even if you ain't a fan of the Rove show he deserves some credit for innovation. Tsunami, what stinking tsunami - it's just low tide.....