Sunday, November 23, 2008

January 20th is Soon Enough

Left-leaning talking heads and op-ed writers are banging the drum for Obama to take the reins of government ahead of the constitutionally mandated date for the presidential transition.  On the other side of the political spectrum, there are silly claims of the "Obama recession."  

Neither of the foregoing persons possess much beyond a remedial understanding of the current financial crisis, if fact listening to them opine on these matters is painful.  Talk about being out of their collective depth, most of these folks most readily resemble Sarah Palin's rambling, nonsensical blather when they seek to characterize what's going on.

I argue that it is prudent for President-elect Obama move .cautiously.  This crisis is dynamic.  As the current administration's efforts have evidenced, today's "solution" may be next week's folly.  The US (and the world's) economy is trodding virgin territory.  Some of what will happen is beyond the control of government.  Better to move slowly and prudently, than respond as ifin  campaign mode.  The next administration needs to guard its credibility fiendishly with regard to our present circumstances.  A rapid response methodology is the polar opposite of what current circumstances demand.  Careful, thoughtful and to extent practicable, consistent economic messages are imperative to allow world markets to heal.  

Wednesday, November 12, 2008

RNC and Newt Make a Prudent Decision

Okay, it's necessary for me to include a post regarding something other than Sarah Palin.  The head of the RNC is the same person they should have chosen last time, Michael Steele.  Steele, the former Lt. Gov of Maryland, seems like the likely choice.  Newt has taken himself out of contention.

Tuesday, November 11, 2008

Palin's Interview with Greta

I was a bit dismissive of the Africa country or continent kerfuffle, but watching the interview gave me pause.  She seems to know something about Darfur, but her explanation (if I generously call it that) was incomprehensible.  Based on her rapid fire, nonsensical rambling, I think her understanding of Africa is no more than puddle deep.  She admits going "off script," read off message, this strikes me as evidence of her selfishness and conceit.  Does she honestly believe that she knows better.  That shocks me as much as anything, no humility whatsoever, is this a positive quality?

Her inability to speak coherently is startling.  I do not believe expecting a vice presidential candidate to speak proper English is elitist.  She absolutely tortures the language.  'Also,' 'they too' and 'there too' are ostensibly used as punctuation.  To understand her responses certainly requires a Tivo and the generous use of the replay button.  She changes tenses within sentences, uses multiple prepositional phrases to pollute sentences and constantly uses 'had' where 'has' is appropriate.  It drives me to distraction.  The speed rambling she uses when she's uncomfortable with a question or issue is another consistent feature.

I find the support for her among the party leaders to be representative of the worst form patronization.  She is an intriguing figure, but honestly, she's a dolt, a highly ambitious, somewhat arrogant dolt.  

Monday, November 10, 2008

Perhaps Someone Read My Blog - Nah Probably Not

On Wednesday of last week, I questioned whether Karl Rove had some special deal that prohibited anyone on FNC from asking him about the failure of his professed goal to create a durable Republican majority.  Much to my surprise, Knucklehead Smith, I mean intellectual lightweight Alan Colmes,  weakly sought to outmaneuver Karl Rove.  His initial question was a pitiful attempt at gotcha, asking Rove about his 'statement" about creating a 'permanent Republican majority.'  Rove prraied effectively, correcting (appropriately) Colmes on the quote, while deftly avoiding responding to the substance of the question and/or Rove's personal responsibility for the national Republican party's current state.  Colmes, remarkably ill-informed, verbally fumbled about for a moment or two and moved on to his second question.  When will Rove's policy guidance throughout the GWB administration be called into question.  One reason you don't read it is because Karl Rove was/is the best friend of the journalists, providing abundant amounts of inside info 'on background.'

Saturday, November 08, 2008

The Emergent Bear?

While it's not yet clear how the global slowdown and the dive in the price of oil will have on Russia's desire to reestablish its empire.  You've gotta love the strutting titular leader, Medvedev.  Every time I see him on tape I'm have to chuckle.  He's (and his sponsor Putin) a manifestation of the Napoleonic syndrome.

Wednesday, November 05, 2008

2012 Race Begins

Bobby Jindal will travel to Iowa next month.  He is a man of intellect and promise (as opposed to the knucklehead from Alaska) and a politician to be reckoned with.

Karl Rove's Special Deal with FNC

Let me state clearly, I'd love to dine with Karl Rove.  He is an enormously talented and knowledgeable professional.  That said, his bailiwick is campaigns not policy.  His masterful manufacture of the "W" from Midland from a lost brat to a Texas Governor to a two-term President is incomparable.  His knowledge of the microscopic aspects of the national electoral process is beyond compare (although some may now argue, a new gunslinger has appeared on the horizon, David Plouffe the under forty wunderkid that outflanked the manifestly destined Hilliary Clinton campaign), but I digress.

How is it that he's been omnipresent throughout the campaign season, yet I have never seen him asked about his claim of creating a durable Republican majority.  This question is particularly salient given the fact that the northeast is bereft of Republican representation, moreover the Old Dominion voted Democratic in the presidential election and is lead by a Democratic governor and two Democratic senators.  Add New Mexico, Nevada, and Colorado (will Florida, Montana and Arizona follow?) to the mix and the sorry state of the national republican party is evident.  The fact that the question does not get asked cannot be a coincidence.

The Palin Chronicles

It's only just begun, there is quite a tale to be told here.  Carl Cameron of FNC, is reporting some National Enquirer type details regarding Billy Kristol's girl.  Call me a voyeur, I'm fascinated by it.  I'll try and read everything I can on the subject and distill it down to a supportable case.  Headline note, according to Cameron, McCain aides claim Palin thought Africa was a country and South Africa an area within it.  Too specific a reference, to my mind, to have been invented.  Secondly, Palin's shopping stories have apparently just begun.  I know I'm shallow, but I love this stuff.

As a Kid I'd Often Been Told . . .

. . . only in America.  If it was not exemplified this evening in a more meaningful way, I am not aware of it.

Tuesday, November 04, 2008

Now the Test - Not to Govern, but Please, to Lead

The problems and challenges are vast.  The tired, dusty ideas of his party's apparatchiks claim to offer hope, but those positions offer no more hope than the least common denominator tripe peddled by Karl Rove.  Obama strikes me as ultimately a pragmatist, one willing to learn, willing to admit he doesn't know every answer off the top of his head or from his gut.  True leadership requires foresight, a quality much under appreciated by the American electorate.  Because leadership fed by foresight does not necessarily provide the answer most readily digestible, our impatience and immediate gratification culture fails to hold this trait with the appropriate level of respect.  I implore President-elect Obama to lead with foresight, a quality sorely missing amongst the political class and their immediate gratification seeking electorate.

A Proud Moment For America

Not merely that an African-American has been elected President of the United States, but that in defeat McCain expressed himself so deeply and earnestly.  I'm at a bit of a loss for words.

FNC Reports Obama Campaign States . . .

all turn out goals exceeded in PA and IN, McCain campaign is eerily quiet 

FNC Calls NC Senate Race for Hagen


MD, IL, CT, NH ME DE to Obama
OK McCain

PA declared too close to call by FNC NBC calls it for Obama

WSJ Exit Poll Info

Voter ID '04 40-35% Republican to Democrat

'08 40% - 30% Democrat to Republican

big change

NBC/FNC Call SC for McCain

FNC - WV McCain, OH, NC,GA Too CLose To Call

Reports Trickling Out from GOP Sources that Sen Dole of NC is Done

Re: IN Too Close to Call

Note that GWB won the state by 21% in '04

KY McCain VT Obama --- Yawn

No One Willing to Call IN or VA

although reading between the lines, at least one seems likely to fall to Obama 

Exit Poll Info

Most now agree these results must be taken with  grain of salt, but the margins are large.

Ohio: Obama +8 
New Mexico: Obama +9 
Virginia: Obama +9 
Pennsylvania: Obama +15 
Missouri: Obama +7 
Florida: Obama +4

Update #3

Kondrake says what most of America already thought, except he'sgot the exit polls - Obama is the  President elect.  I suspect that means PA and/or VA aren't even close

Update #2

Wow, over 25,000 votes reported, Obama with a slight lead, anyone else anxious.  What's worse is I have to go toahigh school football game in 2 hours, ugh!

Update #1

CNN storyline: Will Obama win Indiana?

Exit Poll Dribbles #6

KY polls are closed, as are most in IN 

Exit Polling #5

Obama+15 in PA???

Exit Poll Dribbles #4

52% of African-Americans registered to vote in NC availed themselves of early voting!

Poll Dribbles #3

Biggest Issues
Econ. 62%
Iraq   10%
Health Care 9%
Terrorism 9%

Exit Poll Dribbles #2

Late deciders to Obama in IN and OH, to McCain in Vir. although not by large margins.  White males breaking for McCain, white males are 36% of those voting.

Exit Poll Info Dribbling Out #1

IN, OH, Virginia, approx 10% of voters are 1st time voters, of those 1st timers, they are breaking approx. 68% Obama 32% McCain

Another Chink in the Armor

Sean Hannity's remaining hope seems to fade, the IBD's last national poll shows Obama by 8.  Now the question can Obama temper his party's ardor and govern pragmatically in he most challenging economic environment since the 1970's.  I believe the most critical fact is that the first priority of any newly-elected president is to get re-elected.  

Monday, November 03, 2008

Rush Claims the Appearance of an Impending Obama Victory is Purely Media Driven

Oh puh-lease!  Rush seems to have become increasingly divorced from reality recently.   While it is not unusual for him to ignore inconvenient facts, his persistence in selling his audience rubbish regarding the state of the McCain campaign (despite his well-documented disdain for McCain) does reflect positively on his candor.  Moreover, he hasn't revisit his categorical denial of the problems in the economy spanning July, August and September.  His claims during that time were that the media was merely talking down the economy, irrespective of all evidence to the contrary and despite that fact that Florida, his home state, was an epicenter of the real estate mess. 

Sometimes I wonder why one so willing to call others on their mistakes and foolish statements is so consistently unwilling to apply the same standard to himself.  Rush is far from a paragon of self-awareness.

Sunday, November 02, 2008

Precious Few Continue McCain Happy Talk

The happy talk express seeems out of gas.  Only Hannity, Kristol and those at the National Review Corner are willing to see a victory for McCain.  Republican defense is the tale of the campaign at this point.  Gosh, how will miss ya Sarah ;););). 

Tuesday, October 28, 2008

Campaign Finance

Unless the (state, local) polls are ridiculously wrong the presidential race is decided, Obama is the 44th President of the US.  The financial advantage of the Obama campaign virtually ensures that the ground game will overwhelm the McCain campaign.  The democrats are outspending the republicans by almost astronomical amounts.  I do not believe the staunch Republican base will allow this to occur over the next two presidential elections.  McCain was essentially forced to take federal funding due to his dearth of support amongst the republican base.

Sunday, October 12, 2008

Troopergate Redux

Why are we even discussing this?  It all seems like picking on the homely kid, gone mad.  Why is this country even discussing this matter at this time?  I have a thought, because our electoral process and our republic as constituted has failed.   The 'Troopergate' findings were readily foreseeable, this isn't the result of a political witch hunt.  Palin trods the same road as many before her and surely those who will follow.  It is not about ideology, it is about power, personal and sloppily utilized.

Interestingly, the Obama campaign has remained reticent, almost passive regarding the report.  Prudently so, me thinks, as the facts speak loudly.  Remember, the Governor, wisely, hasn't spoken under oath as to her involvement or non-involvement of the matters at issue.  Perhaps her silence allows her another opportunity in the arena, but it seems almost certain that the her designation as VP candidate will not go unrewarded.  The choice of Sarah Palin as VP of the Republican ticket ranks among the dumbest decisions made by a major party in the last 150 years. 

Scott Schmidt is a clown, I wish him no future work in his chosen profession.  His actions reflect an absolute disdain for the American electorate.  Schmidt's recklessness and hubris unfortunately has brought shame upon a genuine patriot, John McCain and the Republican party.  In doing so, Mr. Schmidt and his acolytes have done all Americans a terrible disservice.  

Friday, October 10, 2008

Palin Inquiry Report Issued

An inquiry instigated by the Alaskan legislature issued a 239 page report finding that Gov. Palin abused the power of her office by pressuring subordinates to try to get her former brother-in-law, a state trooper, fired.  To be clear, this wasn't a politically motivated investigation, it predates the nomination of Palin, was approved 15-0 (9 Republicans and 6 Republicans) by the relevant committee of the Alaskan legislature and on and on, but I digress.

The findings are not a surprise, the evidence of the Palins' ham-handed attempts to shit can state trooper and ex-brother-in-law Wooten (probably, but not relevantly, a creep).  The bigger takeaway is the incompetence of Steve Schmidt, McCain's head strategist who engineered the choice of Sarah Palin and the blind complicity of McCain.  This report and its findings were foreseeable, the timeline of the report on the investigation was known and the results imminently predictable, yet she was chosen.  

Palin is an intellectual lightweight not worthy of national office.  Excuses to the contrary are strained, patronizing and nonsensical.  She is emblematic of the sad state of politics.  Find someone glib, telegenic and ultimately politically malleable and sell them to the public.  Palin's nomination is an insult to politicians, the Republican party and the American public.        

Thursday, October 02, 2008

Biden - Palin Debate

Palin started of strong, well drilled, glib and forthright, but about 10 p.m. EDT the wheels came off.  She is so clearly out of her depth.  She rattles on, butchers the english language and regularly tosses in a non sequitar.   

I often have no idea what she is talking about.

Wednesday, October 01, 2008

Palin Hits the Syncophant Circuit

Interestingly, Palin's handlers have decided to put the Governor on the friendly talk show circuit.  This decision appears to have been made rather suddenly as there wasn't any promotion of the Hugh Hewitt radio show yesterday and is on Sean Hannity's show right now.  Note, that talkingheads on the right began screaming for just this strategy this weekend following Palin's rambling implosion during her interview with Katie Couric.

It's All About the Vote Counters

The approval of the Rescue Plan appears ready to sail through the Senate this evening, but that's when the game begins.  Sweetners have been added to entice a few votes and one expects that each has been put in order to extract particular congressmen's support.  It is notable that the tide has turned a bit since the weekend.  Far more calls to Washington are in support of the bill.

I'm not terribly surprised by the shift in sentiment.  The huge sell-off on Wall Street Monday brought the underlying issues into better focus.  The issue emanates in the credit market, markets not widely followed nor understood by the American public.  It's spillover will impact all elements of the US economy if allowed to fester.  The  reason the stock market hasn't completely tanked is because it is driven more by emotion than cold, calculated analysis like the credit markets.

One question I have is why the House vote isn't until Friday.  I don't know why.  Right now Boehner and Pelosi better have a hard count or god help us.  I'm long S&P futures under the presumption that the numbskulls will come to their senses.

Monday, September 29, 2008

Barrone as Scary Zombie From the Past

Michael Barrone curret piece  is as pitiable as House Speaker Pelosi's diatribe.

More than enough blame to be cast around . . .

Pelosi is a horse's ass

I'm So Pissed I Can Barely Speak

Deposits being yanked a financial system teetering, how do those gutless politicians live with themselves.  I realize Main Street doesn't get it - they won't until the anvil crushes them and their constituencies  like Wile E. Coyote.  The elected politicians are elected to lead not succumb like pitiful idiotic sheep.  They have failed us, failed us horribly.  The impact of this now becomes a sunk cost.  Please note that both Eric Cantor and Paul Ryan, the two most credible Republican House conservatives voted for the bill - - 'nuff said.

Sunday, September 28, 2008

Buffet Saves the Day

According to emerging news reports, the folks negotiating the credit crisis proposal actually spoke to Warren Buffet regarding his perception of the present circumstances.  He apparently spoke in a sparse, straightforward manner (no one who knows Buffet would expect anything different).  He said that the failure to act would likely lead to the most serious financial crisis in US history.  His comments, stark as they were, seemed to impact the atmospherics.


I generally enjoy what the increasingly corpulent, excessively self-satisfied former Speaker of the House, Newt Gingrich.  But, I must agree with the WSJ editorial page that attacked him in their piece in support of the credit rescue bill.  He pontificates from on high and offers no substantive alternative.

The fact is that our government and its people have lived well beyond their means.  Attempts by people to counter the happy talk of our political leaders and many in the financial media were drowned out by the vast majority of Americans placing their over their ears while loudly repeating, "I can't hear you!   I can't hear you!"

If you think that the American people and the federal government are facing hard times ahead, you ain't seen nothing.  State and local governments are in dire straits (exceot for Alaska, thanks to energy tax revenue).  I'll have to dedicate a post to the issue.

Saturday, September 27, 2008

The Politics of Change, Ugh!

Politico lead piece describes Republican attempts to save the foundering, flailing McCain campaign by remaking the credit rescue bill.  It might have been nice if they came up with this strategy on Monday or Tuesday.  Instead this eleventh hour attempt to hijack the process is yet more evidence of the idiocy that pervades Washington.  

The democrats are every bit as culpable.  Including potential benefits to a partisan organization like Acorn is reprehensible and politically stupid.  

Unfortunately, it appears increasingly evident that the stock markets will have to send a
message to Washington by way of a huge selloff.  Markets dictated that the administration offer some credible response to the seizing up of the credit markets.  Last Thursday, 9/18, they leaked that they had a legislative proposal that they indicated required immediate action.  The impending elections added to the urgency, creating expectations in the equity markets.  The reaction to date reflects (unfounded?) optimism that the political Neros in Washington would do the right thing.  

Mind you, Treasury's proposal was incredibly vague, perhaps a reflection of the haste with which it was prepared.  To the Administration's credit, they exhibited flexibility in crafting the proposal, but unbeknowst to anyone but their spouses the House republicans had a slightly different agenda.  Embarrassing the republican House leadership, the republican Senate leadership and most of all their President, the renegade House republicans scuttled the bill by saying that they weren't willing to support the bill.

Frankly, no one likes the bill and the electorate's strenuous opposition to the proposal gave the renegades cover.  My question is why they didn't just decide to extract their pound of flesh earlier in the week.  As I've stated previously, these clowns (virtually, the whole lot of them) lack a remedial understanding the underlying problem, although there are indications that some members have a clue as to the seriousness of present circumstances.  Combine the foregoing with the inability of Paulson to sell the proposal, the lame-duck President's ineffectual, feckless information campaign in support of the measure and the public's nearly categorical opposition to the bill and you have the inedible bowl of porridge that sits in front of us.

See links for wiki regarding Acorn and the Politico piece referenced in the first paragraph.

Thursday, September 25, 2008

Third Quarter IRA/401(k) Statements Will be Received Before the Election

and might be quite troubling if the credit market mess isn't addressed

What is McCain's Role in the House Republicans Decision to Repudiate the Administration's Bill????

What the @#%^& is going on?  Paulson apparently begged that Congress move forward with the plan as negotiated.  House republicans balked and offered a new proposal from the ether.  Reports are that McCain had been briefed on the House republicans intentions beforehand.  McCain has yet to state his support for the agreement, what gives?  Clearly, Bush has no sway.  McCain holds little if any influence over the Ryan/Pence faction.  Is the House faction willing to undermine the McCain campaign, Bush's "legacy" and thrust the US economy into a deep, deep morass.  At the moment it appears so.
The body politic wants to see Wall Street and its "masters of the universe" go down in flames.  Rest assured, the if the idiocy evidenced by the House republicans persists for even a short time longer,that will happen.  However, be assured that unintended consequences will indeed also occur.  The repercussions of this foolhardy politicking will strike directly and profoundly at the heart of the US economy.  What a great victory for these clowns.

Paulson Plan in Serious Trouble

The House republicans threw the country and the capital markets a nasty curve ball by making an entirely new proposal for handling the credit crisis.  This proffer, made at the eleventh hour, at the White House meeting designed to show a unified response to a very serious threat to the US economy, has thrown the entire matter into chaos.  At this juncture, the equity markets seem incredulous.  While the future markets are down in excess of 1 percent, if Washington is unable to present a coherent message as to what is to be done to address the present morass prior to the open of the stock markets, the equity markets will react in a violently negative manner.
Let me be clear, I do not see the Paulson plan as a panacea, it what's on the table and it's what Wall Street understands.  Markets hate uncertainty, and what is happening now is absolute uncertainty, not good.

$700 Billion Rescue Plan

Simply put, this legislation needs to happen.  Set aside the silly hyperbole of the left and the self-righteous indignation of the right, without a comprehensive plan to create a market for collateralized debt obligations (CDOs) and credit default swaps (CDSs) the US (and the world, for that matter) economy will seize up.  People who believe this won't impact them are delusional.

Let's be clear, this is more about saving the economy than it is about bailing out "greedy, rich guys" on Wall Street.   Unfortunately, those that understand the true implications of our current situation are unable to effectively communicate to Main Street.  Conversely, those who ostensibly could explain the reality of our current situation, our politicians, haven't a clue about what is going on.  Our politicians collective ignorance of even elementary economics can't been underestimated.  Furthermore, the pols can't rely on the political talking heads to feed them talking points because they are equally clueless.

 The result is playing itself out in mind-numbing Congressional hearings.  Forget what is going on in the shaky equity markets, the credit markets (that have been remarkably prescient) are pricing in a deep and dire economic future.  Can we be saved, probably, in spite of the professional political class.  Don't even get me started on the crazed statements by McCain who now seems to be running for the position of the country's crazy uncle.  There's a lot to like about the guy, but he appears increasingly unhinged, more like those crazy Vietnam vets I worked with during summer breaks than a credible world leader.  

Sunday, August 31, 2008

Sarah Palin?

The choice has received nearly universal acclaim from conservative talking heads, but I suspect that is due more to the fact that the choice of Palin meant McCain didn't choose Lieberman or Ridge. Karl Rove's response was tepid and probably more representative of campaign professionals response to McCain's choice. He said it was "pure McCain being McCain." Not exactly high praise from the Turd Blossom.

No doubt Palin has an interesting Horatio Alger story, but as Maurren Dowd pointed out on the NYT's opinion page, you might expect in more in a made for TV movie on Lifetime than you would in the midst of a national political campaign.

Putting aside whether her political experience "qualifies" her for the job, I suspect that she will very soon realize that she's out of her depth. Irrespective of the low regard we have for our permanent political class, most have acquired considerable skills in handling the challenges of 24 hour media and a grueling campaign/money raising grind. While I'm more than willing to take a wait and see approach for the moment, I confess to having serious doubts as to whether she will ultimately prove to be up for the challenge.

Saturday, August 23, 2008

Cubs Win!!

Dempster's 15th win, nice recovery from yesterday's debacle. How isit that I failed to realize until today that Dempster's in a contract year.

BIden -VP

Obama names Biden, IMHO a prudent choice, a long political jacket, foreign policy cred and a clever, loquacious attack dog. The potential downside is Joe's proclivity to speak openly, and not infrequently inartfully. Senator Joe's a bright, good guy by virtually everyone in DC's estimation.

Wednesday, August 20, 2008

McCain Surges

For the first time McCain leads in the national likely voters Zogby poll. Not good for Obama. Thus far, Obama has done a poor job of addressing the "readiness" issue. Admittedly, Obama was on vacation last week ceding the stage to McCain, moreover the Russia/Georgia crisis clearly cuts to McCain's advantage. McCain is also benefitting from large ad spends by his campaign. This spending is necessitated by the McCain campaign decision to accept federal campaign funds. The acceptance of the federal campaign funds comes with the imposition of spending limits. Thus, McCain is forced to spend monies in excess of the mandated limits prior to being formally named as the Republican presidential candidate.

Obama's decision to forego federal campaign money means no such limits apply to his post-nomination spending. This decision was made due to the campaign's $300 million war chest. Reports are out today that the campaign has just made a large media buy.

Despite the foregoing, Obama still enjoys an electoral vote lead based upon recent polling, but some erosion of Obama support is evident. What is clear to me is that the Obama campaign is mired in a rope-a-dope strategy and as September nears, the campaign needs to find its footing. The McCain campaign, on the other hand, will definitely be invigorated by the polling.

Thursday, August 14, 2008


Obama chillin' in Hawaii, McCain flailing and searching for a theme - VP guessing game continues - yawn!

Tuesday, August 12, 2008

Summer 2008 Slips Away

A busy summer is all but over, school starts soon and I always seem to benefit from a burst of energy and enthusiasm. The presidential campaign is about to move into high gear, although I have to say that since McCain and Obama have gotten the nods from their respective parties, it's been a yawn fest.

The economy is weak, housing is atrocious (and not yet at a bottom despite what your local knucklehead realtor tells you), energy costs are up significantly (despite recent reversals), yet both candidates seem unwilling or unable to discuss the issues intelligently. They both offer warmed-over drivel straight from each candidates respective party archives.

The fact that Obama's lead is meager is troubling for his supporters given the pitiful state of the national Republican party. McCain benefits from the failure of the Obama campaign to present a relevant, coherent message. The body politic is uncomfortable with current circumstances. McCain is viewed as a "safe" choice and benefits from geopolitical and economic uncertainties.

That said, the Obama campaign is in much better shape from an electoral perspective (the only oe that really counts) where he enjoys sizable lead. That lead may ebb with gas prices if Obama is unable to firmly his bona fides as a ready and viable leader. Enough base populism, he must show himself able to adjust to circumstances as they presently exist. While the Bush tax cuts appear virtually certain to expire given the fact that the Democrats will enjoy significant margins in both the House and the Senate, such inaction will likely have a deleterious impact on the economy. In the same breath, the expiration of the tax cuts will likely result in increased federal revenue in 2009 as transactions are accelerated into 2009 in order to benefit from lower rates.
The other side is that revenues in 2010 and 2011 will be reduced.

The election still appears to be Obama's to lose, but at this point I am wholly uninspired by both campaigns;

Monday, January 28, 2008

Rudy G. - Tested, Ready NOT!!

I for one will really miss the nasty SOB, but sayonara. The rat bastard will inappropriately laugh his ass to the bank.

Saturday, January 26, 2008

Please Set Rudy Free

As his Florida poll numbers erode, I for one am still hopeful for a true Rudy movement. Let's see the cantankerous, old know-it-all who dominated the NYC media and political scene for so long. His stilted, well-coached toothy grin is as legit as Bernie Kerik. Doesn't anyone else find his omnipresent chuckle to questions, irrespective of its gravity troubling. I understand it is a carefully planned technique, but the bald contrivance more than a bit disturbing.

Wednesday, January 02, 2008

Iowa Predictions

The Huck is waning and despite Romney's stumbling, "what position does this group favor" campaign, Romney's superior cash position and organization carry the day. Romney's long-term position is more tenuous. McCain's surge in NH is legit and could seriously benefit from A Clinton win in Iowa. While the talking heads are increasingly suggesting the futility of Rudy's strategy, his only (extremely limited) chance is complete mayhem. Note further that the republican orthodoxy (Fox News excepted) has decided Mitt, with all his foibles, is there best hope and are finally distancing themselves from Rudy and his single-issue bid.

For the Dems things are a little less clear. Edwards has a die-hard base in Iowa, but ultimately I think it isn't enough to beat Clinton. Obama peaked a bit too early and is relying on too many first time caucus attendees. Thus, I think Hilary wins and establishes herself as the putative democratic nominee.

Just my thoughts, worth just what you paid for them

I'm Back . . . .

if anyone cares, time to write a bit again. BTW Happy New Year!!!