RNC Chairman On Rush

Ken Mehlman was just on Rush Limbaugh at the top of the 2nd hour. Not much new here other than Mehlman warning republicans to ignore early exit poll results. Cited flaws in '04,'02 and '00. I thought the flaws in those prior years were primarily the result of early result dissemination of the data. That is the data had not yet been properly weighted.

Mehlman then stressed his comments were not based upon any information he had regarding the current election. Does he protest to much? My guess is that early info from IN and KY will break significantly for the dems and the republicans don't want that info to have the effect of reducing its turnout in the mountain west or the west coast.

Say It and Make It So or Shock and Befuddle

Karl Rove, Ken Mehlman and the RNC are understandably in full court press mode with regard to the upcoming midterm elections. Much of the press appears stunned when the Team rolled out a coordinated effort, spearheaded by the President, two weeks ago claiming that not only would the Republicans retain the Senate, but the House as well. Flummoxed press members respond by saying that the polls seem to indicate otherwise. The Rove machine undeterred, pushes forward, smirking knowingly as if they know something the rest of us do not.

The responses of the press and the Democrats are interesting. I believe I've detected a pattern of sorts. First, visceral response is smug bemusement - what are these guys smokin'? Next, facts are cited (read, poll data) that suggest differently. That reaction is countered by what appear to be RNC talking points; claims of more detailed polling data and mention of the abundant cash that's going to be spent before the campaign is through. That is followed by a fear concussion grenade of quick mentions of increased taxes, S.F. Nancy and terrorism.

The reaction of the press/Democrat at that point is stunned self-doubt, is that SOB going to do it again. You can almost hear them muttering at the end of the discussion. PSYCH!! You can be sure that there's a ton of towel snapping and giddy spider barkin' goin' on in the White House locker room watching the reaction to this posturing.

Let's look at this intelligently. Rove and the RNC do have more detailed polling data including internal polls that aren't readily available to the public, so do the Democrats. That said, the fact is the races that are in play are being polled to death right now by multiple organizations. Those polls taken collectively along with the trend data tell a story. The numbers are the numbers. That is not to say the the House is a fait acompli. Even if you ain't a fan of the Rove show he deserves some credit for innovation. Tsunami, what stinking tsunami - it's just low tide.....