First Winter Storm on Its Way

Well the lovely November we've enjoyed thus far are about to end. The news stations are in breathy tones, although it looks like we are more likely to get mostly rain, of course the storm track could change. The weather outlook appears to track closely the rough ground that lays in front of the Administration. The jobs numbers are abysmal, much worse than the headline number of 10.2%, that number has been cooked up by administration's interested in happy talk regarding the US economy for almost 20 years. Health care is a mess and nothing is likely to happen before the new year. Cap and trade is even more of a disaster. Afghan policy remains in limbo, although that may change soon.

What is the administration to do? Although it's patently unclear how much impact any devised plan will have, they better quickly move toward creating jobs. While the effect of any change won't likely happen anytime soon, the failure to do something is clearly the road to folly. Because of its unwillingness to prioritize the economy, I think 2010 will be an unmitigated disaster for Democrats. The administration fell in love with their own press and decided to press long-held legislative priorities, irrespective of the scope of the problems they were walking into. But how, how could they have been so oblivious to the nature of the challenges facing the country. Simple answer, hubris, the same disease that infests the D.C. political class. UGH!

Managing Expectations

Reinforcements, surge, augmentation, escalation (let's call it "Plan Y"). You say potato I say potato. At the risk of sounding a bit callous, I think a lot about where we sit politically vis a vis Iraqis about the failure to properly manage expectations.

That failure began with the oversell of the threat posed by Iraq and the sacrifice necessary to extinguish that threat. The failure continued by premature declarations of success, firstly, in the contrived photo op of GWB landing on a aircraft carrier that was purposefully kept offshore and the display of Mission Accomplished banner.

The overselling of the political progress within Iraq, whether it was the drone about the progress (or as it should have been non-progress) of the Iraqi military or police forces, the development of an unworkable Iraqi constitution, or an election that displayed little more than the fractiousness of the Iraq body politic are all emblematic of poor politics. The reality simply did not comport with sales job. Accordingly, the American people are rightly suspicious when the latest proposal is proffered as the only possible course of action. At the same time, any disagreement with the Administration's is seen as cowardly.

The Administration has lost credibility with the American people and appropriately so. The American people are not unwilling to fight the good fight, but not a fight that is waged ineffectually and with an absence of candor. Even the current proposal is overly vague with respect to identifiable and quantifiable goals. Progress in Iraq is an identifiable goal and a worthy goal at that, but it is not readily quantifiable and the Bush Administration seems intent on keeping it that way.

The diehard talking heads that continue to support the Administration talk about the
necessity of Plan Y say they believe it will result in progress within 6 to 9 months. While I don't doubt the American military's ability to wage successful campaigns, the progress spoken of requires substantial changes in the way the Iraqi government and military operates. Is that even reasonable to expect within 6 to 9 months. Count me as a skeptic. More troubling is that this timeframe has not been signed onto by the Administration. Incremental improvements in Iraq over the next 6 to 9 months aren't likely result in a substantial change in the support for the efforts in Iraq.

Despite a mature economy that continues to grow at historical strong rates despite very large increases to oil, Bush is seen as a failed President. I think the primary reason is not that Iraq is a mess, but that he and his Administration has not told the American people how hard assisting in the formation of a sustainable, secular Iraq would be. It matters little to the voters whether that is the result of deception or ineptitude, it is a distinction that for the time being, without a difference. The lesson here is it is better to under promise and over deliver than it is to do the converse.