Wednesday, August 20, 2008

McCain Surges

For the first time McCain leads in the national likely voters Zogby poll. Not good for Obama. Thus far, Obama has done a poor job of addressing the "readiness" issue. Admittedly, Obama was on vacation last week ceding the stage to McCain, moreover the Russia/Georgia crisis clearly cuts to McCain's advantage. McCain is also benefitting from large ad spends by his campaign. This spending is necessitated by the McCain campaign decision to accept federal campaign funds. The acceptance of the federal campaign funds comes with the imposition of spending limits. Thus, McCain is forced to spend monies in excess of the mandated limits prior to being formally named as the Republican presidential candidate.

Obama's decision to forego federal campaign money means no such limits apply to his post-nomination spending. This decision was made due to the campaign's $300 million war chest. Reports are out today that the campaign has just made a large media buy.

Despite the foregoing, Obama still enjoys an electoral vote lead based upon recent polling, but some erosion of Obama support is evident. What is clear to me is that the Obama campaign is mired in a rope-a-dope strategy and as September nears, the campaign needs to find its footing. The McCain campaign, on the other hand, will definitely be invigorated by the polling.

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