For the first time McCain leads in the national likely voters Zogby poll. Not good for Obama. Thus far, Obama has done a poor job of addressing the "readiness" issue. Admittedly, Obama was on vacation last week ceding the stage to McCain, moreover the Russia/Georgia crisis clearly cuts to McCain's advantage. McCain is also benefitting from large ad spends by his campaign. This spending is necessitated by the McCain campaign decision to accept federal campaign funds. The acceptance of the federal campaign funds comes with the imposition of spending limits. Thus, McCain is forced to spend monies in excess of the mandated limits prior to being formally named as the Republican presidential candidate.
Obama's decision to forego federal campaign money means no such limits apply to his post-nomination spending. This decision was made due to the campaign's $300 million war chest. Reports are out today that the campaign has just made a large media buy.
Despite the foregoing, Obama still enjoys an electoral vote lead based upon recent polling, but some erosion of Obama support is evident. What is clear to me is that the Obama campaign is mired in a rope-a-dope strategy and as September nears, the campaign needs to find its footing. The McCain campaign, on the other hand, will definitely be invigorated by the polling.
Wednesday, August 20, 2008
Thursday, August 14, 2008
Update
Obama chillin' in Hawaii, McCain flailing and searching for a theme - VP guessing game continues - yawn!
Tuesday, August 12, 2008
Summer 2008 Slips Away
A busy summer is all but over, school starts soon and I always seem to benefit from a burst of energy and enthusiasm. The presidential campaign is about to move into high gear, although I have to say that since McCain and Obama have gotten the nods from their respective parties, it's been a yawn fest.
The economy is weak, housing is atrocious (and not yet at a bottom despite what your local knucklehead realtor tells you), energy costs are up significantly (despite recent reversals), yet both candidates seem unwilling or unable to discuss the issues intelligently. They both offer warmed-over drivel straight from each candidates respective party archives.
The fact that Obama's lead is meager is troubling for his supporters given the pitiful state of the national Republican party. McCain benefits from the failure of the Obama campaign to present a relevant, coherent message. The body politic is uncomfortable with current circumstances. McCain is viewed as a "safe" choice and benefits from geopolitical and economic uncertainties.
That said, the Obama campaign is in much better shape from an electoral perspective (the only oe that really counts) where he enjoys sizable lead. That lead may ebb with gas prices if Obama is unable to firmly his bona fides as a ready and viable leader. Enough base populism, he must show himself able to adjust to circumstances as they presently exist. While the Bush tax cuts appear virtually certain to expire given the fact that the Democrats will enjoy significant margins in both the House and the Senate, such inaction will likely have a deleterious impact on the economy. In the same breath, the expiration of the tax cuts will likely result in increased federal revenue in 2009 as transactions are accelerated into 2009 in order to benefit from lower rates.
The other side is that revenues in 2010 and 2011 will be reduced.
The election still appears to be Obama's to lose, but at this point I am wholly uninspired by both campaigns;
The economy is weak, housing is atrocious (and not yet at a bottom despite what your local knucklehead realtor tells you), energy costs are up significantly (despite recent reversals), yet both candidates seem unwilling or unable to discuss the issues intelligently. They both offer warmed-over drivel straight from each candidates respective party archives.
The fact that Obama's lead is meager is troubling for his supporters given the pitiful state of the national Republican party. McCain benefits from the failure of the Obama campaign to present a relevant, coherent message. The body politic is uncomfortable with current circumstances. McCain is viewed as a "safe" choice and benefits from geopolitical and economic uncertainties.
That said, the Obama campaign is in much better shape from an electoral perspective (the only oe that really counts) where he enjoys sizable lead. That lead may ebb with gas prices if Obama is unable to firmly his bona fides as a ready and viable leader. Enough base populism, he must show himself able to adjust to circumstances as they presently exist. While the Bush tax cuts appear virtually certain to expire given the fact that the Democrats will enjoy significant margins in both the House and the Senate, such inaction will likely have a deleterious impact on the economy. In the same breath, the expiration of the tax cuts will likely result in increased federal revenue in 2009 as transactions are accelerated into 2009 in order to benefit from lower rates.
The other side is that revenues in 2010 and 2011 will be reduced.
The election still appears to be Obama's to lose, but at this point I am wholly uninspired by both campaigns;
Monday, January 28, 2008
Rudy G. - Tested, Ready NOT!!
I for one will really miss the nasty SOB, but sayonara. The rat bastard will inappropriately laugh his ass to the bank.
Saturday, January 26, 2008
Please Set Rudy Free
As his Florida poll numbers erode, I for one am still hopeful for a true Rudy movement. Let's see the cantankerous, old know-it-all who dominated the NYC media and political scene for so long. His stilted, well-coached toothy grin is as legit as Bernie Kerik. Doesn't anyone else find his omnipresent chuckle to questions, irrespective of its gravity troubling. I understand it is a carefully planned technique, but the bald contrivance more than a bit disturbing.
Wednesday, January 02, 2008
Iowa Predictions
The Huck is waning and despite Romney's stumbling, "what position does this group favor" campaign, Romney's superior cash position and organization carry the day. Romney's long-term position is more tenuous. McCain's surge in NH is legit and could seriously benefit from A Clinton win in Iowa. While the talking heads are increasingly suggesting the futility of Rudy's strategy, his only (extremely limited) chance is complete mayhem. Note further that the republican orthodoxy (Fox News excepted) has decided Mitt, with all his foibles, is there best hope and are finally distancing themselves from Rudy and his single-issue bid.
For the Dems things are a little less clear. Edwards has a die-hard base in Iowa, but ultimately I think it isn't enough to beat Clinton. Obama peaked a bit too early and is relying on too many first time caucus attendees. Thus, I think Hilary wins and establishes herself as the putative democratic nominee.
Just my thoughts, worth just what you paid for them
For the Dems things are a little less clear. Edwards has a die-hard base in Iowa, but ultimately I think it isn't enough to beat Clinton. Obama peaked a bit too early and is relying on too many first time caucus attendees. Thus, I think Hilary wins and establishes herself as the putative democratic nominee.
Just my thoughts, worth just what you paid for them
Sunday, September 30, 2007
Brit Hume - Could He Be Anymore Sanctimonious??
Brit Hume is daft. His latest effort to assert himself as the King of Sanctimony was on display today with his breathy, mock shock denunciation of John Edwards statement at the latest Democratic debate that second graders should decide whether they learn about same sex couples (the question specifically spoke about a child's book that described princes who marry). Put aside the absurdity of Edwards proposition, Hume's feigned shock is painful in its complete lack of sincerity. Edwards is a desperate, if not fatally flawed candidate trying to become relevant. Why should he be any different than the other clowns running for political office (perhaps excepting McCain), that is, willing to say anything, irrespective of logic or principle.
This is just the latest from Hume. He seems intent on grasping the bronze ring of sanctimony from a long and (un)worthy list of aspirants. All I can say is UGH!
This is just the latest from Hume. He seems intent on grasping the bronze ring of sanctimony from a long and (un)worthy list of aspirants. All I can say is UGH!
Sunday, July 29, 2007
Bad Follow Thru: The Gonzales Mess
Bad Follow Thru: The Gonzales Mess
http://seorant.blogspot.com/2007/07/pownce-invitation.html
http://seorant.blogspot.com/2007/07/pownce-invitation.html
Monday, July 16, 2007
The Troubling Justification for Mideast Actions
When did the protection of Israel from threats become the de facto basis for US policy in the Middle East. Based upon rhetoric from the Administration as well as that of prominent members of the Senate, one would assume that Israel is the 51st state.
It should be noted that Israel is a sovereign state, one that does not hesitate to pursue its foreign policy ends whether or not its actions are consistent with the interests of the US. Moreover, it is often our interests dovetail with that of Israel. That said, I emphatically and categorically reject the notion that US and Israeli interests are one in the same. I also strenuously reject the notion that the protection of Israel is a duty of the US government. I am not attacking Israel nor minimizing its importance to the US as an ally, but I do know that US policy and Israeli policy are not one in the same, not by a long shot. The US government's duty is to US citizens not the citizens of allies irrespective of the strength of certain lobbies.
It should be noted that Israel is a sovereign state, one that does not hesitate to pursue its foreign policy ends whether or not its actions are consistent with the interests of the US. Moreover, it is often our interests dovetail with that of Israel. That said, I emphatically and categorically reject the notion that US and Israeli interests are one in the same. I also strenuously reject the notion that the protection of Israel is a duty of the US government. I am not attacking Israel nor minimizing its importance to the US as an ally, but I do know that US policy and Israeli policy are not one in the same, not by a long shot. The US government's duty is to US citizens not the citizens of allies irrespective of the strength of certain lobbies.
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