Wednesday, January 02, 2008

Iowa Predictions

The Huck is waning and despite Romney's stumbling, "what position does this group favor" campaign, Romney's superior cash position and organization carry the day. Romney's long-term position is more tenuous. McCain's surge in NH is legit and could seriously benefit from A Clinton win in Iowa. While the talking heads are increasingly suggesting the futility of Rudy's strategy, his only (extremely limited) chance is complete mayhem. Note further that the republican orthodoxy (Fox News excepted) has decided Mitt, with all his foibles, is there best hope and are finally distancing themselves from Rudy and his single-issue bid.

For the Dems things are a little less clear. Edwards has a die-hard base in Iowa, but ultimately I think it isn't enough to beat Clinton. Obama peaked a bit too early and is relying on too many first time caucus attendees. Thus, I think Hilary wins and establishes herself as the putative democratic nominee.

Just my thoughts, worth just what you paid for them

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