Bad Follow Thru

The Admin Spin Team Keeps Frittering, While the Republicans Just Scream

2010-02-21T10:10:00.004-05:00

After Scott Brown's election in MA it appeared to all reasonable folks that healthcare reform ("HCR"), at least an encompassing package, was dead. Put aside for a moment the rights or wrongs of such reform, can the decision on the part of the Administration to revive its hopes (and those who support it) HCR be defended? The political insanity defies explanation. While wonderful statistics can be sighted for HCR (i.e., first in healthcare spending 37th in results), is it the principle issue facing the country right now?

Sure, the country is in serious economic trouble, far more trouble than understood within the Administration or Congress. Put aside the empty ranting of the Republicans in Congress, the Administration has no one to blame but themselves. They are completely out-of-touch with the body politic and that said, the frightening thing is they seem wholly unaware of this fact. They seem to content themselves with the fact that a majority of Americans support HCR, but notably not either one approved by the House nor the Senate. Why do they continue then?

In my view, there are two primary reasons, arrogance and bad advice. Why doesn't a President, one with enough political chops to move from a first term Senator (with no House resume) to the Oval Office, get it? No one credibly argues it's a lack of brains, although some argue too many brains is at least equally problematical. How is it that someone within the Administration does not possess the President's trust to be able to tell him that he's off course and that those individuals within the Administration leading him so must go. It befuddles me how an Administration that has failed so horribly on its principle policy goals retains those who championed the failed policies (don't David Axelrod and Valerie Jarrett need to spend more time with their families).

On the Republican side, the 2010 election wins will be quite substantial, but what does that mean? I have no idea. The struggle for who leads the party is an open question. That is not to say the party is not without highly capable leaders, however I'm not so sure the right people are being thrust to the front. At this point there aren't enough balls on the field for all those rushing to the podium. Rather than substantive debate of the real issues facing this country, the Republicans will continue to scream about the Administration.

That said, is there any hope? I think so, although hope, I expect, won't come from the politicians. One thing for sure, the pain ain't over, not even close.

Update - Evan Bayh Called Obama This Morning

2010-02-15T19:56:00.002-05:00

Ugh,how long does Rahm hang on, that said he isn't the real problem with the Administration. Rahm, is a pragmatist (okay don't yell at me), but Jarrett and Axelrod, are the real problems. Obama has his big decision moment, what does he do. My prediction, take the easy way out, fire Rahm and keep listening to Jarrett and Axelrod, a destiny with disaster. If Obama wanted to learn something he should have looked to the Carter administration. Obama must realize how incredibly ineffectual he looks. His personal personality will only last for three months.

The Implosion of the Democrats - Evan Bayh

2010-02-15T14:35:00.005-05:00

Evan Bayh's decision not to seek another Senate term is shocking. He is a bright, reasonable Senator from a red state that had his most difficult possible opponent step aside last week (Mike Pence). Although admonished from the left, Bayh, represented the Democratic party of years gone by, that is, he was reasonable and thoughtful. Traits now deemed untenable by the idiots on the far left end of the Democratic party. A pitiful crew of zealots desirous of destroying the Democratic party as constituted way back in 2008.

Since Bayh's announcement, Mike Pence has reiterated his intention not to run for the Senate seat giving an open path to (current North Carolina resident?) Dan Coates. Coates, the former IN Senator, whose seat Bayh took when Coates "retired," must be jumping with glee. In my opinion, Coates is a mere placeholder for the Republicans based upon his inauspicious Senate history. Despite this, it's a deathblow as sorts to the Democratic party in Indiana.

The Democrats have no one in the stable with statewide recognition that will have a chance in 2010 given the present political environment. As such, the prospects of a Democratic victory, or for that matter even a close race are dim indeed. Word on the street is that Bayh announced his intentions to staff last Friday, but notified Harry Reid 25 minutes before his announcement. In many ways that is more shocking than the announcement itself. It indicates to me that he had no intention of being talked out of his decision. Word has it that his possible path is to run for governor in 2012, and if so, a Presidential bid in 2016. A lifetime away in political terms.

As I indicated above, the impact to the party and the President is severe, but will they listen? The party "faithful" no. The Administration is another matter entirely. The economy is in absolute shambles irrespective of what you hear from Washington or Wall St. The possibility of a significant downturn is significant, if not likely. What will the Administration do to stem the bleeding? The answer is unclear given the ineffectual leadership they have displayed to date. One thing is readily apparent, the loss of Bayh means the voices of reason within the Democratic party are even more muted. That said, will the Administration recognize the peril they find themselves in? Probably, but whether they have the leadership to effectively govern and get re-elected are open questions indeed.

In my view, the Democrats have seen the enemy and it is them. Yes, Mitch McConnell and his lieutenants, Boehner, Cantor, Pence and Ryan deserve credit (politically) for remaining steadfast. The larger question is what the economy will look like once they regain power in Congress (whether in fact majorities or certainly more significant minorities) and who will lead the party. Both are formidable challenges and the stakes enormous.

Democrat and the Obama Administration Stumble Along

2010-01-23T10:05:00.002-05:00

The Administration, in reaction to the stunning defeat in Massachusetts, launched an ill-conceived attack on the banks resulting in a steep drop in stock markets this week. The Obama administration came into office with a unique situation. A malaise financial lay over the country (note, that despite Democratic claims such clouds remain), and the Democrats were given the Presidency, significant control of the House and a filibuster proof 60-40 majority in the Senate. Basically, the reigns of power rested with the Democrats, and the rudderless administration began their vault into ineptitude.

First, they began with their abdication of the "stimulus" plan. Instead of leading the process, they ceded control to Congress. A Congress who failed to understand the severity of the situation that the country was in. Instead, these geniuses decided on a $787 billion dollar boondoggle. The complete lack of leadership on the part of the Administration was stunning at the time, in retrospect, it appears almost criminal. The package has done little to stem the tide of recession, and of course the Washington clowns are now planning "stimulus" 2. Now as the situation is more dire economically and politically, the second "stimulus" will be little more than state bailouts and extensions of unemployment benefits.

Yes, indeed there were intervening problems. Despite the Administration's ridiculous claims that unemployment would stay at 8%, anyone with economic sense knew that was an absurd claim. Moreover, the overheating of the Chinese economy certainly had a impact on market declines this week. That said, it does not excuse the hubris, if not ignorance that has thus far characterized this Administration. In the face of a cataclysmic downturn in the US, the Administration decided to push forward with an agenda developed in the early 2000's. The results are not shocking.

The current tact of the Administration is naked populism, not the President's long suit. How long that strategy will be promoted and to what effect are unclear. What is readily apparent is that the Democrats are lost and the Republicans have no plan. As one person put it earlier this week, I have never been so disappointed in our politicians in my lifetime. Our politicians are incredibly out of touch with what's going on in this country. Money was spent recklessly, regulation was ignored and promises were made under the flawed notion that basic economics did not apply. I am beyond disgust.

The Hits Just Keep Coming - One Set of Rules for You Another for the Banks

2009-12-15T21:21:00.001-05:00

In the latest abomination the Obama administration has changed tax law for Citibank. Not to belabor the technicalities, but US tax law generally limits a taxpayer's ability to utilize operating losses to offset prior or future income. The limitation is operational where there is a change in control. The disposal of the federal government stake of approximately 34 percent of Citi combined with the equity offering runs into this problem. But as if by a king's decree the Obama administration is pretending as though the limitation doesn't exist in Citi's case. The impact is only $38 billion, yes $38 BILLION. This is beyond obscene, I think it's illegal. Now mind you I just learned this so I need to investigate it further, but I can't imagine how else it could work (I am a tax attorney). Essentially, US taxpayers have just bailed out Citi to the tune of another $38 BILLION, and no one's the wiser. Are you kidding me. This is beyond the pale.

The Mess That is Our Government

2009-12-09T19:24:00.003-05:00

I am beyond disgust. What has happened the last week. Obama finally talks about jobs and then sources say he'll fund it with TARP funds. The knucklehead Harry Reid gets some semblance of a health care bill through (although it's ultimate prospects remain unclear). All this followed by the EPA's display of hubris, by saying if Congress didn't act that they'd put forward their own onerous version of cap and trade (put aside the ridiculously long amount of time that would take). This idiocy is only rivaled by the inanity of the loyal opposition. The Republicans say nothing meaningful.

The only conclusion I can draw is that they are completely out of touch with reality. It is shocking, simply shocking that all these idiots can do is either try to shout the other side down or trying to push forward a laundry list of political priorities irrespective of the economic reality we find ourselves in now. I have always been a political afficiando, but never have I felt so entirely voiceless. The situation is glum indeed.

Retail Numbers are Universally Disappointing

2009-11-29T09:57:00.002-05:00

Initial retail sales figures have come out for Black Friday and they were poor and below most forecasts. Before we get to the numbers let's challenge the prognosticators. Estimates for this year's retail sales on Black Friday generally were strongly favorable when compared to the cataclysm of 2008. What world are these prognosticators living in? The facts are hard to avoid, yet the estimates seem based upon the foolish notion that American consumers will continue to ignore reality despite 17% unemployment, 1 in 4 mortgage holders underwater and an unsure retirement lying in front of them. How can this be, haven't we moved to a "new normal" and assuming we have (I do), when are analysts going to catch up. I feel like they spend way too much time watching the happy talk on CNBC.

Initial estimates show retail sales increased .5% over last years, but the Northeast numbers showed a 5% decrease from the paltry 2008 numbers. How can that info be spun positively, frankly, I have no idea. I don't doubt, however, that the bulls and the senseless cheerleaders on CNBC will attempt to do so.

Dubai Default

2009-11-26T22:11:00.002-05:00

On our holiday the financial world took its first step back to reality as Dubai asked its lenders for forbearance on billions of dollars of debt. Dubai's recent building have been nothing short of incredible, if you aren't sure (oh shucks, even if you are sure) look at this http://ibankcoin.com/chart_addict/2009/11/26/dubai-the-city-on-crack/ . Well in the happy-happy land reflected in recent stock market movement, this has caused an enormous impact while we gorged ourselves on great homemade food (at least I did). The dollar rose as did the Yen as the Euro and Pound were, well pounded. This is the flight to safety that market bears warned about.

The Greek stock market was down 7 percent (another potential default risk), while most of the other European markets were down roughly 2 percent. But the full impact hasn't all been accounted for yet. The closure of the US market certainly cushioned the fall in equities and the shortened day in the US markets tomorrow (and low volume driven by the lack of market participants) may tamp down the impact tomorrow, but the long-term implications remain intact. The short dollar trade has been oversold (at least in the near-term). This fact, not sustainable increases in corporate earnings have driven the market to regain more than 60 percent of the market losses sustained. A return to the dollar as the safety currency may be exacerbated by a short squeeze of an overplayed trade.

The foregoing may (I believe likely) will cause an enormous impact on the value of US equities. I don't buy the case sold by current market bulls. Consumers account for approximately 2/3 of the US economy. Between job losses, credit cards and underwater mortgages, it absolutely amazes me that analysts claim that we're going to have a good holiday season. Be real, folks are strapped. Whether this event or subsequent events cause a return to rationality I don't know. But one thing for sure things are different than they have ever been in my lifetime and certainly the clowns in Washington (all of them), simply don't get it. Disappointing.

New Spin on Health Care Reform

2009-11-24T09:03:00.003-05:00

Let me start this piece by saying that health care reform is needed. There is simply no way it is acceptable that our per capita spending is first amongst industrialized countries, yet our results are 37th amongst the same group. Moreover, the rate of increase in costs is daunting.

That said, the latest spin is that not passing health care is worse for Democrats than passing something, anything. Given the precarious state of our economy, I find that contention patently absurd. The two disparate bills generated by the House and Senate are fraught with problems. What the bills do display in abundance is the problems with our Congress and their lack of connection with body politic. Much has been made of the deal to get Senator Mary Landrieu to buy off on cloture. That seedy deal is normal Washington politics, headline benefit with little to nothing accomplished.

The fact is the Democrats are no where near a deal on health care and the Republicans have decided to take their toys and go home. This is not to say a deal won't get done, but the abomination that will emerge if it gets done, will be ever more frightening. The Republicans seem to be hoping this happens so they can hoist the Democrats on their own petard in the '10 elections. The lack of leadership is frightening, and the complete abdication of leadership from the White House is nothing short of shocking.

The spin that something no matter how fetid and obese is better than nothing at all is obscene. Our legislature cannot effectively legislate. Moreover, the Administration pitiful silence is deafening. Do they simply not get it, not understand what their jobs are?

First Winter Storm on Its Way

2009-11-14T09:39:00.004-05:00

Well the lovely November we've enjoyed thus far are about to end. The news stations are in breathy tones, although it looks like we are more likely to get mostly rain, of course the storm track could change. The weather outlook appears to track closely the rough ground that lays in front of the Administration. The jobs numbers are abysmal, much worse than the headline number of 10.2%, that number has been cooked up by administration's interested in happy talk regarding the US economy for almost 20 years. Health care is a mess and nothing is likely to happen before the new year. Cap and trade is even more of a disaster. Afghan policy remains in limbo, although that may change soon.

What is the administration to do? Although it's patently unclear how much impact any devised plan will have, they better quickly move toward creating jobs. While the effect of any change won't likely happen anytime soon, the failure to do something is clearly the road to folly. Because of its unwillingness to prioritize the economy, I think 2010 will be an unmitigated disaster for Democrats. The administration fell in love with their own press and decided to press long-held legislative priorities, irrespective of the scope of the problems they were walking into. But how, how could they have been so oblivious to the nature of the challenges facing the country. Simple answer, hubris, the same disease that infests the D.C. political class. UGH!

Major Deficit Reduction Proferred

2009-11-12T07:56:00.003-05:00

The administration has offered their first attempt at reducing the deficit, they're going to utilize unused TARP funds. A brave, disciplined move no doubt. I mean let it sit around a little longer Nancy and the troops will find a way to spend the cash. The country is in a quandary, Obama has promised not to raise taxes on those taxpayers making less than $200,000 (or was it $250,000, no matter), but the fact is that absent raising taxes the debt load is daunting. Moreover, it somewhat robs the Republicans of their primary legislative offering, lower taxes. No worry, nothing to see here just move along. Our feckless politicians will continue their dopey dance, providing no leadership whatever. Our government is failing (although not in a way knucklehead Glenn Beck screams about), but we continue to fiddle while Rome burns, alas.

House Democrats Believe Passage of Health Care Will Help Them in 2010

2009-11-07T10:38:00.003-05:00

Self deception is dangerous and the level of self deception among Democrats, particularly the leadership is profound. How they can even make such a claim is evidence that sanity has no place in D.C. The health care debate combined with the unemployment rate and the perilous state of the US economy create dark ominous clouds over the heads of Congressional representatives recently elected. Sure it'll have little impact on the House leadership because they're in safe districts. The impact on many of their colleagues promises to be severe. It astounds me that the leadership is so tone deaf to what's going on in the real world.

Obama to Endorse House Healthcare Bill Today

2009-11-06T07:10:00.004-05:00

The President according to reports plans to endorse the House healthcare bill today, so what does that mean. Firstly, I must confess to largely ignoring the House bill as a Pelosi build disaster area, but not the WH. The WH initially had expressed so much enthusiasm with the Senate's machinations around healthcare, so why the sea change?

I'm frankly not sure. Is this a desperate last second throw to the end zone? If I were pressed to render a judgment I guess that I'd have to say that it is. Let's digress, no substantive bill will pass Congress without the complicity of the Senate, yet the House bill has absolutely no chance of passing the Senate. So why does the Administration decide to weigh in at this moment.

I'm a little lost, is this Administration, which so capably managed the Presidential campaign, unable to recognize the minefield that they have stumbled into? Does anyone above the age of 25 really believe that any plan that our federal government enacts can actually bend the cost curve. Please, put aside all the crazy talk surrounding this debate.

Health care is 16-17% of our economy albeit with poor results relative to the world (i.e., child mortality, neo-natal care etc.). Put aside that our critical care medicine is without peer, that is where our competitive advantage lies. The level of medical costs is clearly detrimental to the overall economy, but can the government cure it. My 46 years on this planet leave me with a jaundiced view. Maybe it could happen and it certainly is worthy of Congressional and Presidential attention, but the House bill is a train wreck.

We're going to save $50 billion on fraud and abuse in Medicare. If so, why are we waiting to pass a bill to realize that savings. That mere proposal of the foregoing shows its insanity. The House bill is a testimony to bureaucracy not to added efficiency, how does the Administration feel that this represents our best answer to a clearly vexing problem. I am disappointed that the President's advisers have apparently told him that this is the best he can hope for. I don't pretend to know the answer, but I'm confident that the House bill ain't it.

NJ is the Key - Is Rome Burning?

2009-11-04T08:53:00.004-05:00

Cast aside Virginia and the 23rd district in NY, the real takeaway from yesterday's races is Corzine's loss in NJ. More importantly, it's the size of the loss - 5% points. The win by Christie is significant in a number of ways. He ran an abysmal campaign against an unpopular governor in a horrible economy. His performance in the debates was deplorable, yet he won. Not an insignificant undertaking given NJ's predilection for electing democrats.

However, the whys behind the victory aren't difficult to discern nor is the impact this may have on the feckless members of Congress. This election and the inability of the economy to recover anytime soon bode ill tidings for incumbents, particularly blue dog democrats in the House. The election, combined with word from Senate sources that no health care bill would be issued prior to 2010 portend difficult times ahead for health carer and the administrations other domestic priorities. The administration looks like a slightly disabled car in a demolition derby, endless circling around awaiting the death blow of one of its competitors.

As I have said before the triumverate of advisors to the President are doing him no favors, their tin ears to the encompassing economic gloom is astounding and their lack of apparent attention to the same are beyond problematical. Much like the outset of the Clinton administration it appears that kids have been thrust into adult jobs. The question is who can right the ship. Clinton turned to the politically savvy insider David Gergen, but to whom Obama can turn is more vexing.

Firstly, send Ms. Jarrett home, she's obviously a bright person, but as clearly, she lacks the political acumen necessary to help the President navigate his way through this morass. Secondly, allow Mr. Axelrod to head home, he's as ineffectual a domestic advisor as his predecessor, Mr. Rove. Rahm should stay, but lord knows he needs a counterweight, and one of equal or greater stature than him.

I doubt that any of the above will happen until things get much worse (ugh!), Obama doesn't strike me as someone willing to act quickly, nor to I see his chief of staff (Rahm) recommending it. The said, if this Administration doesn't wake up very soon, the mid-term elections will be a disaster for the Democrats. If things aren't significantly better by next October look for cartoon picture of Obama as Nero, fiddling while Rome burns.

Health Care Done for 2009

2009-11-03T18:10:00.002-05:00

Senate democratic sources indicate the no bill will be put forward prior to year end. Irrespective of one's position on such a measure, the political ineptitude is remarkable. The Obama administration has done nothing to strengthen its own hand, to the contrary they are the primary source of the failing of their main domestic imperative. An overall view is that hubris and political idiocy dominates the administration, more to my previous post.

Given this delay, it remains unclear to me that such a plan can be implemented, the 2010 elections will predominant, and the power of Obama will diminish. Such a sorry state of political acumen.

Pelosi, Reid, McConnel, Boehner and Most of All Obama - Do They Care What's Going On?

2009-11-01T10:04:00.002-05:00

I remain throughly interested in the business of politics, but my view has changed somewhat. I know am far more interested in leadership, something sadly missing amongst the majority of our political class. Do these folks recognize the sorry state of our federal economy? Do they honestly care? If actions truly speak louder than words, these folks are clowns, not worthy of the positions they have.

The Republicans appear vested in the interest of the economy imploding once again to allow them to retake power. The Democrats, on the other hand, want their agenda passed, irrespective of the cost. The President, intent on listening to the knuckleheaded, tone-deaf trio of Jarrett, Emanuel and Axelrod, plods forward ineffectually. A sorry plight.

Where we leadership come from, sadly I have no answer. What I can say with some certainty is that the present path will not succeed. Housing, jobs, the explosion of the federal debt and the decline of the dollar do not bode well for our economy over the next 2 years. I for one am highly pessimistic.

More of the Same From The WH

2009-10-30T09:42:00.002-04:00

Are they tone deaf or simply idiots. The latest from the government about the jobs they've created or saved, debunked http://tiny.cc/Mk7lS. What we learn as citizens is that the government, irrespective of the party in control, will tell the country what it believes they want to hear. It's pitiful, our governmental class is so out of touch with the citizenry that it is astounding. When will it change, I fear, no rather I expect, not within my lifetime. Congress is a joke, as is the Executive branch. I'm no kind of believer in the nonsense of the village idiot Glenn Beck, but the distance of our politicians from the people they reportedly represent is vast. I beyond troubled, I am despondent.

Thin Skin of WH Getting Pretty Old

2009-10-30T09:06:00.002-04:00

Time to man up WH, the latest shot across the bow from the WH is against Edmunds.com, the car website. The shot attacks Edmunds.com's assertion that cash for clunkers cost the taxpayers $24,000 per car. While I question the number from Edmund's, the fact is the WH looks like clowns, trying to shout down all who challenge their programs. Grow up, everyone recognizes that we are playing on untrod ground. Quit being so defensive, do what you think is right, if the data shows you were wrong, do something shocking, admit it. The current administration continues to look weak.

Moreover, the administration's job creation numbers are pure fantasy. It is pitiable to put forward such lame information when the economic realities are so severe. It is entirely the wrong economic time to have such a pro-government administration in place.

The administration has shown precious little attentiveness to the present economic circumstances, instead they continue down a wish list that is out of step with present facts. I am extraordinarily troubled, the US economy is in shambles. Not beyond repair, mind you, but profoundly troubled.

I Question the Intellectual Strength of Valerie Jarrett

2009-10-21T20:34:00.002-04:00

I watched her a number of times at this point and I am not yet convinced that this woman is all that bright, certainly not with regard to national politics. I know she has many acolytes not the least of which is the President himself, but I remain unconvinced. More importantly, I think her non-public, governmental knowledge is even more wanting. Frankly, I think her advice is atrocious. While her name is not associated with her unattributed comments to the press, I feel fairly confident her fingerprints are apparent on a number of items, yet of course her style is entirely different from the other 2 major spinners within the administration, Rahm and Axelrod. Her careless hiring decisions are one thing, but having a tin ear to the national political scene convinces me she is out of her depth.

How Bad Was That Call

2009-10-10T11:16:00.002-04:00

The call on Joe Mauer's ball to right field in yesterday's Yankee Twins game was deplorable. I will say as succinctly as possible that it is the worst call I have ever seen in playoff baseball. The call was not even close and was absolutely abysmal. There is simply no excuse, the umpire was the left field umpire, unbelievable.

Big Fun on The Blog

2009-09-18T08:40:00.002-04:00

Nothing to say other than I wish I saw sunshine and had income, oh well.

Glenn Beck - Roger Ailes' Nutjob

2009-09-13T15:31:00.002-04:00

While I confess to watching Beck nightly (yes, I realize I'm part of the problem), it's because I'm totally fascinated by him. Do not worry about logical progression when watching the show, it's unimportant. Two plus two doesn't equal four, but just jump on board on the fun train! The 9/12 "project" is bizarre, what is the point, I watched him describe it innumerable times but I still have no idea what he's talking about. My conclusion, it's about Glenn, the entirety of the show and its antecedents are about Beck, logic need not apply.

Obama Speech to Joint Session, Stimulus Bill Saves/Generates 1 Million New Jobs, Stock Markets Up (Again)

2009-09-10T19:10:00.003-04:00

It's a beautiful world, all is great, nothing to worry about, give me a break. Where is the reality potion, 'cause lord knows there is tons of demand. I am flummoxed, how long can this nonsense go on. Enough of my mindless ranting, I'm done.

Tonight Obama Speaks to Joint Session of Congress

2009-09-09T07:09:00.002-04:00

Story on the web last night claims Reid and Pelosi have the votes and Obama wants to utilize hyper speed to push health care reform too, note that the story was light on specifics and that's the rub. I don't see how the Senate passes a bill nearly as comprehensive as the administration was looking/hoping for, point of fact, I think there's no shot. Leaks from the White House indicate that Obama will support the public option, but that ship sailed seven weeks ago.

The real remaining question is what type of speech Obama will deliver. I'd seriously question an extensive lecture format, because than nonsense simply won't work and its failure will leave a gaping hole in the hull of the USS Obama. Whether that leads to a democratic blood bath next November, despite current thinking, isn't a fait acompli, democratic fortunes are more tied to the economy. As to the economy, I am not optimistic. A jobless recovery, in my opinion, will result in an unmitigated romp for republicans. While the death of the republican brand may have been greatly exaggerated, the only real cure is one party rule, just what we have now.

I for one have lost almost entire confidence in the political class. These clowns (just pick a party) care very little about what happens in "real" America. They live in an unrealistic fantasy land. The vast majority of the state legislatures are, in fact, worse than the feds. State bureaucracies are even more ignorant of economic reality than the feds. States' have promised employees, police and teachers ridiculous pension and medical care that are simply not sustainable. Not only not sustainable now, but unsustainable in the best of economic times. But will government shrink, unlikely.

The Reports of My Demise are Greatly Exagerated!

2009-09-08T13:58:00.002-04:00

Despite claims to the contrary, I am alive. My silence has been driven more by amazement than anything else. The administration is a mess. Lack of focus, overconfidence, and general ignorance of the body politic can all be blamed for the ineffectualness of the present administration. Oh, let's not forget ceding 'control/authority' to Nancy and the nut-jobs running the House of Representatives. I don't know what else to say at this point. More to follow.

A few comments regarding the inane equity markets: Please get a grip on reality. Sure the market is supposed to look forward six to nine months, but let's get a grip, true recovery is a ways off. The consumer is strapped, if not unemployed. Housing ain't going to recover when people with 770+ FiCO scores can't get mortgages. I think the recovery will be slow, but what do I know.

January 20th is Soon Enough

2008-11-23T09:43:00.003-05:00

Left-leaning talking heads and op-ed writers are banging the drum for Obama to take the reins of government ahead of the constitutionally mandated date for the presidential transition. On the other side of the political spectrum, there are silly claims of the "Obama recession."

Neither of the foregoing persons possess much beyond a remedial understanding of the current financial crisis, if fact listening to them opine on these matters is painful. Talk about being out of their collective depth, most of these folks most readily resemble Sarah Palin's rambling, nonsensical blather when they seek to characterize what's going on.

I argue that it is prudent for President-elect Obama move .cautiously. This crisis is dynamic. As the current administration's efforts have evidenced, today's "solution" may be next week's folly. The US (and the world's) economy is trodding virgin territory. Some of what will happen is beyond the control of government. Better to move slowly and prudently, than respond as ifin campaign mode. The next administration needs to guard its credibility fiendishly with regard to our present circumstances. A rapid response methodology is the polar opposite of what current circumstances demand. Careful, thoughtful and to extent practicable, consistent economic messages are imperative to allow world markets to heal.

RNC and Newt Make a Prudent Decision

2008-11-12T22:26:00.005-05:00

Okay, it's necessary for me to include a post regarding something other than Sarah Palin. The head of the RNC is the same person they should have chosen last time, Michael Steele. Steele, the former Lt. Gov of Maryland, seems like the likely choice. Newt has taken himself out of contention.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_S._Steele

Palin's Interview with Greta

2008-11-11T16:33:00.004-05:00

I was a bit dismissive of the Africa country or continent kerfuffle, but watching the interview gave me pause. She seems to know something about Darfur, but her explanation (if I generously call it that) was incomprehensible. Based on her rapid fire, nonsensical rambling, I think her understanding of Africa is no more than puddle deep. She admits going "off script," read off message, this strikes me as evidence of her selfishness and conceit. Does she honestly believe that she knows better. That shocks me as much as anything, no humility whatsoever, is this a positive quality?

Her inability to speak coherently is startling. I do not believe expecting a vice presidential candidate to speak proper English is elitist. She absolutely tortures the language. 'Also,' 'they too' and 'there too' are ostensibly used as punctuation. To understand her responses certainly requires a Tivo and the generous use of the replay button. She changes tenses within sentences, uses multiple prepositional phrases to pollute sentences and constantly uses 'had' where 'has' is appropriate. It drives me to distraction. The speed rambling she uses when she's uncomfortable with a question or issue is another consistent feature.

I find the support for her among the party leaders to be representative of the worst form patronization. She is an intriguing figure, but honestly, she's a dolt, a highly ambitious, somewhat arrogant dolt.

Perhaps Someone Read My Blog - Nah Probably Not

2008-11-10T21:54:00.004-05:00

On Wednesday of last week, I questioned whether Karl Rove had some special deal that prohibited anyone on FNC from asking him about the failure of his professed goal to create a durable Republican majority. Much to my surprise, Knucklehead Smith, I mean intellectual lightweight Alan Colmes, weakly sought to outmaneuver Karl Rove. His initial question was a pitiful attempt at gotcha, asking Rove about his 'statement" about creating a 'permanent Republican majority.' Rove prraied effectively, correcting (appropriately) Colmes on the quote, while deftly avoiding responding to the substance of the question and/or Rove's personal responsibility for the national Republican party's current state. Colmes, remarkably ill-informed, verbally fumbled about for a moment or two and moved on to his second question. When will Rove's policy guidance throughout the GWB administration be called into question. One reason you don't read it is because Karl Rove was/is the best friend of the journalists, providing abundant amounts of inside info 'on background.'

The Emergent Bear?

2008-11-08T11:54:00.003-05:00

While it's not yet clear how the global slowdown and the dive in the price of oil will have on Russia's desire to reestablish its empire. You've gotta love the strutting titular leader, Medvedev. Every time I see him on tape I'm have to chuckle. He's (and his sponsor Putin) a manifestation of the Napoleonic syndrome.

2012 Race Begins

2008-11-05T21:49:00.003-05:00

Bobby Jindal will travel to Iowa next month. He is a man of intellect and promise (as opposed to the knucklehead from Alaska) and a politician to be reckoned with.

Karl Rove's Special Deal with FNC

2008-11-05T21:36:00.006-05:00

Let me state clearly, I'd love to dine with Karl Rove. He is an enormously talented and knowledgeable professional. That said, his bailiwick is campaigns not policy. His masterful manufacture of the "W" from Midland from a lost brat to a Texas Governor to a two-term President is incomparable. His knowledge of the microscopic aspects of the national electoral process is beyond compare (although some may now argue, a new gunslinger has appeared on the horizon, David Plouffe the under forty wunderkid that outflanked the manifestly destined Hilliary Clinton campaign), but I digress.

How is it that he's been omnipresent throughout the campaign season, yet I have never seen him asked about his claim of creating a durable Republican majority. This question is particularly salient given the fact that the northeast is bereft of Republican representation, moreover the Old Dominion voted Democratic in the presidential election and is lead by a Democratic governor and two Democratic senators. Add New Mexico, Nevada, and Colorado (will Florida, Montana and Arizona follow?) to the mix and the sorry state of the national republican party is evident. The fact that the question does not get asked cannot be a coincidence.

The Palin Chronicles

2008-11-05T20:44:00.004-05:00

It's only just begun, there is quite a tale to be told here. Carl Cameron of FNC, is reporting some National Enquirer type details regarding Billy Kristol's girl. Call me a voyeur, I'm fascinated by it. I'll try and read everything I can on the subject and distill it down to a supportable case. Headline note, according to Cameron, McCain aides claim Palin thought Africa was a country and South Africa an area within it. Too specific a reference, to my mind, to have been invented. Secondly, Palin's shopping stories have apparently just begun. I know I'm shallow, but I love this stuff.

As a Kid I'd Often Been Told . . .

2008-11-05T00:21:00.002-05:00

. . . only in America. If it was not exemplified this evening in a more meaningful way, I am not aware of it.

Now the Test - Not to Govern, but Please, to Lead

2008-11-04T23:37:00.002-05:00

The problems and challenges are vast. The tired, dusty ideas of his party's apparatchiks claim to offer hope, but those positions offer no more hope than the least common denominator tripe peddled by Karl Rove. Obama strikes me as ultimately a pragmatist, one willing to learn, willing to admit he doesn't know every answer off the top of his head or from his gut. True leadership requires foresight, a quality much under appreciated by the American electorate. Because leadership fed by foresight does not necessarily provide the answer most readily digestible, our impatience and immediate gratification culture fails to hold this trait with the appropriate level of respect. I implore President-elect Obama to lead with foresight, a quality sorely missing amongst the political class and their immediate gratification seeking electorate.

A Proud Moment For America

2008-11-04T23:25:00.002-05:00

Not merely that an African-American has been elected President of the United States, but that in defeat McCain expressed himself so deeply and earnestly. I'm at a bit of a loss for words.

FNC Reports Obama Campaign States . . .

2008-11-04T20:11:00.002-05:00

all turn out goals exceeded in PA and IN, McCain campaign is eerily quiet

FNC Calls NC Senate Race for Hagen

2008-11-04T20:09:00.001-05:00

8 EST

2008-11-04T20:00:00.003-05:00

MD, IL, CT, NH ME DE to Obama

OK McCain

PA declared too close to call by FNC NBC calls it for Obama

WSJ Exit Poll Info

2008-11-04T19:56:00.002-05:00

Voter ID '04 40-35% Republican to Democrat

'08 40% - 30% Democrat to Republican

big change

NBC/FNC Call SC for McCain

2008-11-04T19:31:00.001-05:00

FNC - WV McCain, OH, NC,GA Too CLose To Call

2008-11-04T19:27:00.002-05:00

Reports Trickling Out from GOP Sources that Sen Dole of NC is Done

2008-11-04T19:18:00.003-05:00

Re: IN Too Close to Call

2008-11-04T19:11:00.001-05:00

Note that GWB won the state by 21% in '04

KY McCain VT Obama --- Yawn

2008-11-04T19:10:00.000-05:00

No One Willing to Call IN or VA

2008-11-04T19:08:00.001-05:00

although reading between the lines, at least one seems likely to fall to Obama

Exit Poll Info

2008-11-04T18:51:00.001-05:00

Most now agree these results must be taken with grain of salt, but the margins are large.

Ohio: Obama +8
New Mexico: Obama +9
Virginia: Obama +9
Pennsylvania: Obama +15
Missouri: Obama +7
Florida: Obama +4

Update #3

2008-11-04T18:35:00.002-05:00

Kondrake says what most of America already thought, except he'sgot the exit polls - Obama is the President elect. I suspect that means PA and/or VA aren't even close

Update #2

2008-11-04T18:30:00.002-05:00

Wow, over 25,000 votes reported, Obama with a slight lead, anyone else anxious. What's worse is I have to go toahigh school football game in 2 hours, ugh!

Update #1

2008-11-04T18:13:00.001-05:00

CNN storyline: Will Obama win Indiana?

Exit Poll Dribbles #6

2008-11-04T18:07:00.006-05:00

KY polls are closed, as are most in IN

Exit Polling #5

2008-11-04T17:41:00.001-05:00

Obama+15 in PA???

Exit Poll Dribbles #4

2008-11-04T17:39:00.002-05:00

52% of African-Americans registered to vote in NC availed themselves of early voting!

Poll Dribbles #3

2008-11-04T17:36:00.002-05:00

Biggest Issues

Econ. 62%

Iraq 10%

Health Care 9%

Terrorism 9%

Exit Poll Dribbles #2

2008-11-04T17:33:00.003-05:00

Late deciders to Obama in IN and OH, to McCain in Vir. although not by large margins. White males breaking for McCain, white males are 36% of those voting.

Exit Poll Info Dribbling Out #1

2008-11-04T17:30:00.002-05:00

IN, OH, Virginia, approx 10% of voters are 1st time voters, of those 1st timers, they are breaking approx. 68% Obama 32% McCain

Another Chink in the Armor

2008-11-04T08:06:00.002-05:00

Sean Hannity's remaining hope seems to fade, the IBD's last national poll shows Obama by 8. Now the question can Obama temper his party's ardor and govern pragmatically in he most challenging economic environment since the 1970's. I believe the most critical fact is that the first priority of any newly-elected president is to get re-elected.

Rush Claims the Appearance of an Impending Obama Victory is Purely Media Driven

2008-11-03T13:09:00.002-05:00

Oh puh-lease! Rush seems to have become increasingly divorced from reality recently. While it is not unusual for him to ignore inconvenient facts, his persistence in selling his audience rubbish regarding the state of the McCain campaign (despite his well-documented disdain for McCain) does reflect positively on his candor. Moreover, he hasn't revisit his categorical denial of the problems in the economy spanning July, August and September. His claims during that time were that the media was merely talking down the economy, irrespective of all evidence to the contrary and despite that fact that Florida, his home state, was an epicenter of the real estate mess.

Sometimes I wonder why one so willing to call others on their mistakes and foolish statements is so consistently unwilling to apply the same standard to himself. Rush is far from a paragon of self-awareness.

Precious Few Continue McCain Happy Talk

2008-11-02T13:02:00.004-05:00

The happy talk express seeems out of gas. Only Hannity, Kristol and those at the National Review Corner are willing to see a victory for McCain. Republican defense is the tale of the campaign at this point. Gosh, how will miss ya Sarah ;););).

Campaign Finance

2008-10-28T23:12:00.004-04:00

Unless the (state, local) polls are ridiculously wrong the presidential race is decided, Obama is the 44th President of the US. The financial advantage of the Obama campaign virtually ensures that the ground game will overwhelm the McCain campaign. The democrats are outspending the republicans by almost astronomical amounts. I do not believe the staunch Republican base will allow this to occur over the next two presidential elections. McCain was essentially forced to take federal funding due to his dearth of support amongst the republican base.

Troopergate Redux

2008-10-12T00:42:00.003-04:00

Why are we even discussing this? It all seems like picking on the homely kid, gone mad. Why is this country even discussing this matter at this time? I have a thought, because our electoral process and our republic as constituted has failed. The 'Troopergate' findings were readily foreseeable, this isn't the result of a political witch hunt. Palin trods the same road as many before her and surely those who will follow. It is not about ideology, it is about power, personal and sloppily utilized.

Interestingly, the Obama campaign has remained reticent, almost passive regarding the report. Prudently so, me thinks, as the facts speak loudly. Remember, the Governor, wisely, hasn't spoken under oath as to her involvement or non-involvement of the matters at issue. Perhaps her silence allows her another opportunity in the arena, but it seems almost certain that the her designation as VP candidate will not go unrewarded. The choice of Sarah Palin as VP of the Republican ticket ranks among the dumbest decisions made by a major party in the last 150 years.

Scott Schmidt is a clown, I wish him no future work in his chosen profession. His actions reflect an absolute disdain for the American electorate. Schmidt's recklessness and hubris unfortunately has brought shame upon a genuine patriot, John McCain and the Republican party. In doing so, Mr. Schmidt and his acolytes have done all Americans a terrible disservice.

Palin Inquiry Report Issued

2008-10-10T23:11:00.002-04:00

An inquiry instigated by the Alaskan legislature issued a 239 page report finding that Gov. Palin abused the power of her office by pressuring subordinates to try to get her former brother-in-law, a state trooper, fired. To be clear, this wasn't a politically motivated investigation, it predates the nomination of Palin, was approved 15-0 (9 Republicans and 6 Republicans) by the relevant committee of the Alaskan legislature and on and on, but I digress.

The findings are not a surprise, the evidence of the Palins' ham-handed attempts to shit can state trooper and ex-brother-in-law Wooten (probably, but not relevantly, a creep). The bigger takeaway is the incompetence of Steve Schmidt, McCain's head strategist who engineered the choice of Sarah Palin and the blind complicity of McCain. This report and its findings were foreseeable, the timeline of the report on the investigation was known and the results imminently predictable, yet she was chosen.

Palin is an intellectual lightweight not worthy of national office. Excuses to the contrary are strained, patronizing and nonsensical. She is emblematic of the sad state of politics. Find someone glib, telegenic and ultimately politically malleable and sell them to the public. Palin's nomination is an insult to politicians, the Republican party and the American public.

Biden - Palin Debate

2008-10-02T22:19:00.002-04:00

Palin started of strong, well drilled, glib and forthright, but about 10 p.m. EDT the wheels came off. She is so clearly out of her depth. She rattles on, butchers the english language and regularly tosses in a non sequitar.

I often have no idea what she is talking about.

Palin Hits the Syncophant Circuit

2008-10-01T17:10:00.002-04:00

Interestingly, Palin's handlers have decided to put the Governor on the friendly talk show circuit. This decision appears to have been made rather suddenly as there wasn't any promotion of the Hugh Hewitt radio show yesterday and is on Sean Hannity's show right now. Note, that talkingheads on the right began screaming for just this strategy this weekend following Palin's rambling implosion during her interview with Katie Couric.

It's All About the Vote Counters

2008-10-01T16:55:00.002-04:00

The approval of the Rescue Plan appears ready to sail through the Senate this evening, but that's when the game begins. Sweetners have been added to entice a few votes and one expects that each has been put in order to extract particular congressmen's support. It is notable that the tide has turned a bit since the weekend. Far more calls to Washington are in support of the bill.

I'm not terribly surprised by the shift in sentiment. The huge sell-off on Wall Street Monday brought the underlying issues into better focus. The issue emanates in the credit market, markets not widely followed nor understood by the American public. It's spillover will impact all elements of the US economy if allowed to fester. The reason the stock market hasn't completely tanked is because it is driven more by emotion than cold, calculated analysis like the credit markets.

One question I have is why the House vote isn't until Friday. I don't know why. Right now Boehner and Pelosi better have a hard count or god help us. I'm long S&P futures under the presumption that the numbskulls will come to their senses.

Barrone as Scary Zombie From the Past

2008-09-29T23:24:00.002-04:00

Michael Barrone curret piece http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/09/are_we_at_an_inflection_point.html is as pitiable as House Speaker Pelosi's diatribe.

More than enough blame to be cast around . . .

2008-09-29T23:14:00.003-04:00

Pelosi is a horse's ass

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0908/14089.html

I'm So Pissed I Can Barely Speak

2008-09-29T20:51:00.003-04:00

Deposits being yanked a financial system teetering, how do those gutless politicians live with themselves. I realize Main Street doesn't get it - they won't until the anvil crushes them and their constituencies like Wile E. Coyote. The elected politicians are elected to lead not succumb like pitiful idiotic sheep. They have failed us, failed us horribly. The impact of this now becomes a sunk cost. Please note that both Eric Cantor and Paul Ryan, the two most credible Republican House conservatives voted for the bill - - 'nuff said.

Buffet Saves the Day

2008-09-28T11:10:00.002-04:00

According to emerging news reports, the folks negotiating the credit crisis proposal actually spoke to Warren Buffet regarding his perception of the present circumstances. He apparently spoke in a sparse, straightforward manner (no one who knows Buffet would expect anything different). He said that the failure to act would likely lead to the most serious financial crisis in US history. His comments, stark as they were, seemed to impact the atmospherics.

Newt

2008-09-28T10:08:00.003-04:00

I generally enjoy what the increasingly corpulent, excessively self-satisfied former Speaker of the House, Newt Gingrich. But, I must agree with the WSJ editorial page that attacked him in their piece in support of the credit rescue bill. He pontificates from on high and offers no substantive alternative.

The fact is that our government and its people have lived well beyond their means. Attempts by people to counter the happy talk of our political leaders and many in the financial media were drowned out by the vast majority of Americans placing their over their ears while loudly repeating, "I can't hear you! I can't hear you!"

If you think that the American people and the federal government are facing hard times ahead, you ain't seen nothing. State and local governments are in dire straits (exceot for Alaska, thanks to energy tax revenue). I'll have to dedicate a post to the issue.

The Politics of Change, Ugh!

2008-09-27T12:10:00.003-04:00

Politico lead piece describes Republican attempts to save the foundering, flailing McCain campaign by remaking the credit rescue bill. It might have been nice if they came up with this strategy on Monday or Tuesday. Instead this eleventh hour attempt to hijack the process is yet more evidence of the idiocy that pervades Washington.

The democrats are every bit as culpable. Including potential benefits to a partisan organization like Acorn is reprehensible and politically stupid.

Unfortunately, it appears increasingly evident that the stock markets will have to send a

message to Washington by way of a huge selloff. Markets dictated that the administration offer some credible response to the seizing up of the credit markets. Last Thursday, 9/18, they leaked that they had a legislative proposal that they indicated required immediate action. The impending elections added to the urgency, creating expectations in the equity markets. The reaction to date reflects (unfounded?) optimism that the political Neros in Washington would do the right thing.

Mind you, Treasury's proposal was incredibly vague, perhaps a reflection of the haste with which it was prepared. To the Administration's credit, they exhibited flexibility in crafting the proposal, but unbeknowst to anyone but their spouses the House republicans had a slightly different agenda. Embarrassing the republican House leadership, the republican Senate leadership and most of all their President, the renegade House republicans scuttled the bill by saying that they weren't willing to support the bill.

Frankly, no one likes the bill and the electorate's strenuous opposition to the proposal gave the renegades cover. My question is why they didn't just decide to extract their pound of flesh earlier in the week. As I've stated previously, these clowns (virtually, the whole lot of them) lack a remedial understanding the underlying problem, although there are indications that some members have a clue as to the seriousness of present circumstances. Combine the foregoing with the inability of Paulson to sell the proposal, the lame-duck President's ineffectual, feckless information campaign in support of the measure and the public's nearly categorical opposition to the bill and you have the inedible bowl of porridge that sits in front of us.

See links for wiki regarding Acorn and the Politico piece referenced in the first paragraph.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Association_of_Community_Organizations_for_Reform_Now

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0908/14015.html

Third Quarter IRA/401(k) Statements Will be Received Before the Election

2008-09-25T22:34:00.006-04:00

and might be quite troubling if the credit market mess isn't addressed

What is McCain's Role in the House Republicans Decision to Repudiate the Administration's Bill????

2008-09-25T22:10:00.002-04:00

What the @#%^& is going on? Paulson apparently begged that Congress move forward with the plan as negotiated. House republicans balked and offered a new proposal from the ether. Reports are that McCain had been briefed on the House republicans intentions beforehand. McCain has yet to state his support for the agreement, what gives? Clearly, Bush has no sway. McCain holds little if any influence over the Ryan/Pence faction. Is the House faction willing to undermine the McCain campaign, Bush's "legacy" and thrust the US economy into a deep, deep morass. At the moment it appears so.
The body politic wants to see Wall Street and its "masters of the universe" go down in flames. Rest assured, the if the idiocy evidenced by the House republicans persists for even a short time longer,that will happen. However, be assured that unintended consequences will indeed also occur. The repercussions of this foolhardy politicking will strike directly and profoundly at the heart of the US economy. What a great victory for these clowns.

Paulson Plan in Serious Trouble

2008-09-25T21:11:00.004-04:00

The House republicans threw the country and the capital markets a nasty curve ball by making an entirely new proposal for handling the credit crisis. This proffer, made at the eleventh hour, at the White House meeting designed to show a unified response to a very serious threat to the US economy, has thrown the entire matter into chaos. At this juncture, the equity markets seem incredulous. While the future markets are down in excess of 1 percent, if Washington is unable to present a coherent message as to what is to be done to address the present morass prior to the open of the stock markets, the equity markets will react in a violently negative manner.
Let me be clear, I do not see the Paulson plan as a panacea, it what's on the table and it's what Wall Street understands. Markets hate uncertainty, and what is happening now is absolute uncertainty, not good.

$700 Billion Rescue Plan

2008-09-25T07:17:00.004-04:00

Simply put, this legislation needs to happen. Set aside the silly hyperbole of the left and the self-righteous indignation of the right, without a comprehensive plan to create a market for collateralized debt obligations (CDOs) and credit default swaps (CDSs) the US (and the world, for that matter) economy will seize up. People who believe this won't impact them are delusional.

Let's be clear, this is more about saving the economy than it is about bailing out "greedy, rich guys" on Wall Street. Unfortunately, those that understand the true implications of our current situation are unable to effectively communicate to Main Street. Conversely, those who ostensibly could explain the reality of our current situation, our politicians, haven't a clue about what is going on. Our politicians collective ignorance of even elementary economics can't been underestimated. Furthermore, the pols can't rely on the political talking heads to feed them talking points because they are equally clueless.

The result is playing itself out in mind-numbing Congressional hearings. Forget what is going on in the shaky equity markets, the credit markets (that have been remarkably prescient) are pricing in a deep and dire economic future. Can we be saved, probably, in spite of the professional political class. Don't even get me started on the crazed statements by McCain who now seems to be running for the position of the country's crazy uncle. There's a lot to like about the guy, but he appears increasingly unhinged, more like those crazy Vietnam vets I worked with during summer breaks than a credible world leader.

Sarah Palin?

2008-08-31T19:04:00.002-04:00

The choice has received nearly universal acclaim from conservative talking heads, but I suspect that is due more to the fact that the choice of Palin meant McCain didn't choose Lieberman or Ridge. Karl Rove's response was tepid and probably more representative of campaign professionals response to McCain's choice. He said it was "pure McCain being McCain." Not exactly high praise from the Turd Blossom.

No doubt Palin has an interesting Horatio Alger story, but as Maurren Dowd pointed out on the NYT's opinion page, you might expect in more in a made for TV movie on Lifetime than you would in the midst of a national political campaign.

Putting aside whether her political experience "qualifies" her for the job, I suspect that she will very soon realize that she's out of her depth. Irrespective of the low regard we have for our permanent political class, most have acquired considerable skills in handling the challenges of 24 hour media and a grueling campaign/money raising grind. While I'm more than willing to take a wait and see approach for the moment, I confess to having serious doubts as to whether she will ultimately prove to be up for the challenge.

Cubs Win!!

2008-08-23T22:05:00.003-04:00

Dempster's 15th win, nice recovery from yesterday's debacle. How isit that I failed to realize until today that Dempster's in a contract year.

BIden -VP

2008-08-23T21:55:00.002-04:00

Obama names Biden, IMHO a prudent choice, a long political jacket, foreign policy cred and a clever, loquacious attack dog. The potential downside is Joe's proclivity to speak openly, and not infrequently inartfully. Senator Joe's a bright, good guy by virtually everyone in DC's estimation.

McCain Surges

2008-08-20T08:02:00.002-04:00

For the first time McCain leads in the national likely voters Zogby poll. Not good for Obama. Thus far, Obama has done a poor job of addressing the "readiness" issue. Admittedly, Obama was on vacation last week ceding the stage to McCain, moreover the Russia/Georgia crisis clearly cuts to McCain's advantage. McCain is also benefitting from large ad spends by his campaign. This spending is necessitated by the McCain campaign decision to accept federal campaign funds. The acceptance of the federal campaign funds comes with the imposition of spending limits. Thus, McCain is forced to spend monies in excess of the mandated limits prior to being formally named as the Republican presidential candidate.

Obama's decision to forego federal campaign money means no such limits apply to his post-nomination spending. This decision was made due to the campaign's $300 million war chest. Reports are out today that the campaign has just made a large media buy.

Despite the foregoing, Obama still enjoys an electoral vote lead based upon recent polling, but some erosion of Obama support is evident. What is clear to me is that the Obama campaign is mired in a rope-a-dope strategy and as September nears, the campaign needs to find its footing. The McCain campaign, on the other hand, will definitely be invigorated by the polling.

Update

2008-08-14T07:22:00.002-04:00

Obama chillin' in Hawaii, McCain flailing and searching for a theme - VP guessing game continues - yawn!

Summer 2008 Slips Away

2008-08-12T06:36:00.002-04:00

A busy summer is all but over, school starts soon and I always seem to benefit from a burst of energy and enthusiasm. The presidential campaign is about to move into high gear, although I have to say that since McCain and Obama have gotten the nods from their respective parties, it's been a yawn fest.

The economy is weak, housing is atrocious (and not yet at a bottom despite what your local knucklehead realtor tells you), energy costs are up significantly (despite recent reversals), yet both candidates seem unwilling or unable to discuss the issues intelligently. They both offer warmed-over drivel straight from each candidates respective party archives.

The fact that Obama's lead is meager is troubling for his supporters given the pitiful state of the national Republican party. McCain benefits from the failure of the Obama campaign to present a relevant, coherent message. The body politic is uncomfortable with current circumstances. McCain is viewed as a "safe" choice and benefits from geopolitical and economic uncertainties.

That said, the Obama campaign is in much better shape from an electoral perspective (the only oe that really counts) where he enjoys sizable lead. That lead may ebb with gas prices if Obama is unable to firmly his bona fides as a ready and viable leader. Enough base populism, he must show himself able to adjust to circumstances as they presently exist. While the Bush tax cuts appear virtually certain to expire given the fact that the Democrats will enjoy significant margins in both the House and the Senate, such inaction will likely have a deleterious impact on the economy. In the same breath, the expiration of the tax cuts will likely result in increased federal revenue in 2009 as transactions are accelerated into 2009 in order to benefit from lower rates.
The other side is that revenues in 2010 and 2011 will be reduced.

The election still appears to be Obama's to lose, but at this point I am wholly uninspired by both campaigns;

Rudy G. - Tested, Ready NOT!!

2008-01-28T22:20:00.000-05:00

I for one will really miss the nasty SOB, but sayonara. The rat bastard will inappropriately laugh his ass to the bank.

Please Set Rudy Free

2008-01-26T08:40:00.000-05:00

As his Florida poll numbers erode, I for one am still hopeful for a true Rudy movement. Let's see the cantankerous, old know-it-all who dominated the NYC media and political scene for so long. His stilted, well-coached toothy grin is as legit as Bernie Kerik. Doesn't anyone else find his omnipresent chuckle to questions, irrespective of its gravity troubling. I understand it is a carefully planned technique, but the bald contrivance more than a bit disturbing.

Iowa Predictions

2008-01-02T08:04:00.000-05:00

The Huck is waning and despite Romney's stumbling, "what position does this group favor" campaign, Romney's superior cash position and organization carry the day. Romney's long-term position is more tenuous. McCain's surge in NH is legit and could seriously benefit from A Clinton win in Iowa. While the talking heads are increasingly suggesting the futility of Rudy's strategy, his only (extremely limited) chance is complete mayhem. Note further that the republican orthodoxy (Fox News excepted) has decided Mitt, with all his foibles, is there best hope and are finally distancing themselves from Rudy and his single-issue bid.

For the Dems things are a little less clear. Edwards has a die-hard base in Iowa, but ultimately I think it isn't enough to beat Clinton. Obama peaked a bit too early and is relying on too many first time caucus attendees. Thus, I think Hilary wins and establishes herself as the putative democratic nominee.

Just my thoughts, worth just what you paid for them

I'm Back . . . .

2008-01-02T08:02:00.000-05:00

if anyone cares, time to write a bit again. BTW Happy New Year!!!

Brit Hume - Could He Be Anymore Sanctimonious??

2007-09-30T12:34:00.000-04:00

Brit Hume is daft. His latest effort to assert himself as the King of Sanctimony was on display today with his breathy, mock shock denunciation of John Edwards statement at the latest Democratic debate that second graders should decide whether they learn about same sex couples (the question specifically spoke about a child's book that described princes who marry). Put aside the absurdity of Edwards proposition, Hume's feigned shock is painful in its complete lack of sincerity. Edwards is a desperate, if not fatally flawed candidate trying to become relevant. Why should he be any different than the other clowns running for political office (perhaps excepting McCain), that is, willing to say anything, irrespective of logic or principle.

This is just the latest from Hume. He seems intent on grasping the bronze ring of sanctimony from a long and (un)worthy list of aspirants. All I can say is UGH!

Bad Follow Thru: The Gonzales Mess

2007-07-29T09:04:00.000-04:00

Bad Follow Thru: The Gonzales Mess
http://seorant.blogspot.com/2007/07/pownce-invitation.html

The Troubling Justification for Mideast Actions

2007-07-16T17:44:00.000-04:00

When did the protection of Israel from threats become the de facto basis for US policy in the Middle East. Based upon rhetoric from the Administration as well as that of prominent members of the Senate, one would assume that Israel is the 51st state.

It should be noted that Israel is a sovereign state, one that does not hesitate to pursue its foreign policy ends whether or not its actions are consistent with the interests of the US. Moreover, it is often our interests dovetail with that of Israel. That said, I emphatically and categorically reject the notion that US and Israeli interests are one in the same. I also strenuously reject the notion that the protection of Israel is a duty of the US government. I am not attacking Israel nor minimizing its importance to the US as an ally, but I do know that US policy and Israeli policy are not one in the same, not by a long shot. The US government's duty is to US citizens not the citizens of allies irrespective of the strength of certain lobbies.

The Gonzales Mess

2007-04-19T21:41:00.000-04:00

The crib sheet version of what is going on here is relatively simple - plain and simple incompetence. The fact is that the appointment of US Attorneys is an inherently political process and legally the dismissal of the US Attorneys on 12/7/06 is not problematic. What is abundantly clear however is that Alberto Gonzales is a bumbler and horribly ill-suited to fulfill the highest law enforcement post in the United States. Not only are his explanations of his involvement/non-involvement lamentable his smarmy smugness is intolerable. Hubris is the most abundant trait within this Administration. I watched more than 80 percent of today's hearings and I almost feel bad for the guy. Anyone with any self-respect would have resigned weeks ago.

The Democrats could almost be accused of bullying an obviously over-matched minion were it not for the Republicans joining in. Gonzales performance was atrocious and most Administrations would be shrinking in their collective chairs, horrified and ashamed at Gonzales abysmal performance. How can Josh Bolton allow this to continue, can't he get the President to see the obvious. Like it or not Alberto Gonzales is emblematic of what is wrong about the Bush Presidency. I find it sad really that it has taken so long for the American people to come to grips with the fact that the Emperor has no clothes.

Bill Clinton engaged in shameful personal behavior as President, but no one can reasonably argue that he was an incompetent politician. The same can't be said regarding the current President. His inability to accept reality has diminished the Presidency in this country, seriously hurt his political party and damaged the country's international reputation in a way that will take decades to repair. I honestly feel sorry for the President, I believe he believes in what he is doing, but his inability to see things for what they are is pitiful.

YOU SMELL THAT? DO YOU SMELL THAT?

2007-04-19T12:17:00.000-04:00

No, it's not napalm in the morning it's "Hapless Al" Stew. If there was doubt as to whether whether Mr. Gonzales will survive this mess, such doubts should now be dispelled.

The morning session is nearly complete, but despite AG Gonzales' bluster and vigorous preparation (according to carefully placed items over the last two weeks) his chances of surviving this mess are slim and nil and folks Slim just left town. In spite of some softballs tossed by friendly Republican senators, he's still appears to be overmatched. His position is so pitiful that even Republican senators Graham and Sessions are rolling their eyes in apparent disbelief over the feebleness of his answers. Moreover, there is no dispute whatsoever that this guy is a terrible manager and one without any credibility with the Senate. Thank god for a country where a chucklehead like this could rise to the office of US Attorney General.

If Politicians are Going to Dye Their Hair - Why Don't They At Least Get It Done Well

2007-04-01T11:55:00.000-04:00

I am deeply troubled by the trend of politicians, in particular presidential candidates, to comically dye their hair. Moreover, the Ronald McDonald character of these dye-job-in-a-box efforts is being extended to eyebrows. This disturbing trend is an obvious sign of the coming apocalypse. Tommy Thompson's appearance this morning on This Week with George Stephanoplus was the latest incidence of metrosexual efforts gone awry. During my youth, I recall chuckling at the feeble efforts of faded starlets to appear younger. The vainglorious efforts were quietly accepted as signs of senility.

No such acceptance should be afforded to egomaniacal men seeking the uber-prize, the presidency. I'm not troubled by the want to appear younger (or maybe just less old), but if you make the decision to dye your hair, see fit to place the job in the hands of a talented professional and not aisle 3 at Walmart. Tommy Thompson's hair color did not even remotely appear to otherwise exist in nature.

While I'm on this important topic, I should note another male hair trend I find troubling. The trend appears to be driven by the universal condemnation of the comb-over. Balding men have taken to either growing their remaining hair to ridiculous lengths or thickness. The most recognizable example of the later is Karl Rove. Despite having mere wisps of hair across his dome and rather cropped hair on the sides, the back of his head has a ridiculously abundant tuft of hair. I suspect the genesis of Hair Emergency is twofold. Firstly, as I mentioned above, the loss of the comb-over as an acceptable hair style choice has left the hair challenged befuddled and without good options. Secondly, I suspect that self-styling is the primary causation.

It is well documented that balding men bristle at the fact that their haircuts cost as much as haircuts for the folliclely unchallenged. While to the best of my knowledge, no genetic link between male pattern baldness and being cheap has yet been established, the anecdotal evidence is unassailable. The end result is that in bathrooms throughout the Beltway terrible, terrible thing are happening . The only chance we have of stopping this is to expose the problem in the same way the uni-brow and the comb-over were. Please help.

Anybody Smellin' That Texas Al and Armidillo Stew That's Cookin'?

2007-03-29T15:09:00.000-04:00

Former AG Chief of Staff Kyle Sampson's testimony appears to place a nail in Texas Al's coffin. Sampson directly contradicted Gonzales' statements regarding his non-involvement in the discussions leading up to the dismissal of 8 US Attorneys. At the White House press briefing later today, the spokeswoman notably did not take the opportunity to lend support to the embattled and incompetent gent from Texas, Alberto Gonzales.

As an aside, unlike Scooter Libby, I doubt that Texas Al has a prosperous future on the rubber chicken circuit, since he lack the conservative street cred. Nor do I expect that there will be a ton of legal work in his future. But, don't shed too many tears, the Bush mafia that bought GWB the Crawford "ranch" won't let 'em starve.

Saudis Dis Bush - Condemning "Occupation" and Cancel State Dinner

2007-03-28T18:23:00.000-04:00

In a relatively shocking blast to a President deeply wounded by the American public renunciation of his Iraq policy in polls and in the 2006 elections, he was hit with a devastating one-two combination from long-time Bush backers in Saudi Arabia. The Saudi King Abdullah first withdrew from his planned State dinner scheduled for April 17. That rebuke was stiffened by the King's harsh comments about the US "occupation" of Iraq. While it is well documented that the Saudi's (Prince Bandar, specifically) strongly cautioned Bush against its intention to invade Iraq (if for no small reason that the Iranians were likely to be the unintended beneficiaries by Bob Woodward and others, the Saudis criticism of the Bush administration has been publically muted. At least until now.

The President Draws a Line in the Sand

2007-03-20T18:14:00.000-04:00

The president's brief press conference this evening was vintage Bush. While offering support for the embattled Attorney General, the real thrust of the press conference was to appeal the the public and seek to stem the bleeding by making the current crisis as a constitutional issue. The offer from the White House is to have Karl Rove and Harriet Miers (and likely others) testify before the judiciary committee in closed door, unsworn testimony. Prominent democrats have already dismissed this offer as unsatisfactory and will almost certainly issue subpoenas. The result is may be a protracted court fight, one that is unlikely to aid an administration already seriously handicapped push forward any political agenda. The only winners might be Republican political candidates who are better positioned to benefit from a pissing contest between Congress and the White House (remember everybody gets wet in a pissing contest).

What's odd is why the White House has waited until now to get off the defense and attempt to push back against the juggernaut. Irrespective, I still think Texas Al still has to go, the political Gods will demand sacrifice.

WH Looking for Replacement For Texas Al, but Wait Tell Me it's Not So!!!

2007-03-20T14:55:00.000-04:00

As the Al Gonzales death watch continues, reports emanate of possible replacements being floated. Without evaluating each of the potential candidates, one is certainly worthy of further discussion, the Crypt-Keeper, Michael Chertoff, current Director of Homeland Security. What Bernie Kerik isn't available? His name certainly comes to mind as one with the resume and Bush administration bona fides to be nominated, but I easily discounted him as unacceptable as a result of his almost criminal ineptitude in the response to Hurricane Katrina. Ah, but I was too hasty. Too willing to overestimate Karl Rove's political ability, too willing to underestimate the President's child-like need to play only with playmates that have already shared play dates with the Brat-in-Chief. My lord, is this the height of folly.

That said, I'm going to guess that the trial balloon related to Chertoff has already floated out into the Chesapeake Bay and sunk. Why anyone within the White House would want to nominate this chucklehead for anything me. The Democrats in the Senate would have a fiesta with him. Pummelling him like a pinata until he burst.

A Shout out to MyBlogLog.com

2007-03-20T14:33:00.000-04:00

As is frequently the case, I have no recollection of how exactly I stumbled across (although it may have been via Stumble) MyBlogLog.com, but thus far I'm happy I did. It's an interesting concept, essentially a Blog community. It's initial impact was to drive a bit of traffic to my blog. A welcome event. I have to confess despite some remedial efforts to drive traffic to my blog, previous efforts were disappointing. So it's nice to not feelas though I'm shouting in the desert.

See Ya Texas Al

2007-03-16T19:01:00.000-04:00

CBS News reported as it's lead that Al is gone. The WH fired back immediately to deny the story, despite acknowledging that everyone wants Al's head. Don't forget that I predicted his departure immediately after this story broke.

Hasta la Vista Alberto

2007-03-15T08:22:00.000-04:00

It increasing appears that the Attorney General is not long for this world. John Sununu became the first Republican publically calling for Mr. Gonzales' resignation. Combine that with the tepid words of support issued by President Bush and other members of the White House and the proverbial handwriting appears to be on the wall. The fact is that Gonzales has few friends on the Hill and his support within the White House might be limited to his political godfather, the President.

Given the highly sensitive nature of the upcoming detainee trials, I think it's unlikely that the White House feels it can go forward with a damaged Attorney General. Convincing the American public that Khalid Sheik Muhammad kidnapped the Lindburgh baby and murdered Nicole Simpson and Ron Goldman, might be difficult.

AG On Fire

2007-03-13T14:33:00.000-04:00

US AG Alberto Gonzales, appearing extremely uncomfortable, put forward a limited defense to the firestorm surrounding the dismissal of 8 US Attorney's. He began with a general statement that everything that happens within the Dept of Justice is his responsibility, but then went on to say he didn't know the actions taken by his chief of staff, Kyle Sampson, despite the fact that the recently resigned Mr. Sampson had been charged with performance evaluations of the US Attorneys and ostensibly was vetting those evaluations through the White House. Mr. Gonzales repeatedly stated that 110,000 people work at DOJ and that as such he couldn't possibly know what each of those employees were up to. That comment might be true and acceptable in general, but it strains the bounds of credulity in the present case.

Gonzales focused narrowly on the issue of his recent Congressional testimony. He was forced to accept that his testimony was wrong, but that his misstatements of fact were the result ignorance of the actions of his Chief of Staff as well as Karl Rove and Harriet Miers. Mr. Gonzales demeanor was contrite if not terrified. My read at this point is that this may result in his resignation. His demeanor stands in stark contrast to his standard modus operandi - smug in the extreme, irrespective of the sensitivity of the underlying issue (i.e. warrantless surveillance, treatment of detainees etc.). That past behavior virtually ensures that Congressional Democrats are going to come at Gonzales with both guns blazing. The only thing Gonzales has going for him is the stubbornness of the President. The counterpoint is how much political capital is an already damaged White House willing to expend on Mr. Gonzales.

The Bears - No Respect

2007-01-29T11:58:00.000-05:00

If you follow the national sports press, the conclusion is obvious, the Bears may as well stay home, Payton Manning is a man of destiny. No talk of the Colts inability to stop the run. The Super Bowl result is preordained, the Colts win.

I respectfully disagree. No one can argue who is the best quarterback playing on Sunday. Similarly, no one can argue that the Bears possess the superior defense. It's my belief that this is a closer game than the 7 point difference reflected in the point spread. I think the winner will be determined by which team is able to be more successful on the ground. If the Colts revert to the sieve run defense they displayed for most of the season, Peyton may be forced to generate a touchdown every other time his offense has the ball.

That said, I'd rather not see the Colts with the ball with two minutes left in a tie game. I just think, contrary to popular belief, that the Bears will win this game.